Greening in the Wrong Places: Geography, Policy Distortions, and the Hidden Costs of Misallocated Green Investment

Decarbonization is reconfiguring global relative prices. As clean energy, natural capital, and location-specific assets become dominant industrial inputs, the relative cost of producing low-carbon goods is increasingly determined by geography. Two systematic distortions explain why the expected reallocation of investment toward renewable-rich economies remains incomplete. First, industrial policy interventions, including subsidies, trade barriers, and certification systems, disconnect effective prices from underlying structural costs. Second, institutional failures create demand uncertainty that leaves structurally competitive projects unbankable. Together, these distortions generate static misallocation, leading to slower technological learning, higher fiscal burdens, delayed emissions reductions, and suppressed industrial opportunities in developing economies. This paper is part of broader research on powershoring and green comparative advantage, which focuses on the idea that decarbonization is a spatial and price reorganization of global production, in addition to a technological transition.

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The Productive Value of Care: Evidence from International Experience and Implications for Morocco

Closing Morocco's gender employment gap could increase GDP per capita by 40-50 percent; yet female labor force participation stands at just 19 percent—among the lowest in the world and still declining. This policy paper argues that investing in the care economy is not merely a social expenditure, but a productive economic strategy with measurable returns. Drawing on international evidence from Uruguay, Mexico, Colombia, and India, the brief demonstrates that well-designed care systems—spanning childcare, eldercare, and domestic work—can substantially increase women's labor force participation, generate employment across sectors, improve human capital outcomes, and expand the fiscal base through workforce formalization. The paper identifies four operational pillars for reform: building a robust measurement infrastructure, including a satellite account for unpaid care work; expanding affordable, high-quality childcare, particularly for children under three; professionalizing and formalizing the care workforce; and strengthening governance through a centralized coordination body. Morocco's ongoing reform agenda—anchored in the New Development Model and the Jobs Roadmap—offers a timely opportunity to embed these investments within national policy.

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U.S., China, and Latin America: How Far Does the Donroe Doctrine Go?

The commercial and geopolitical interdependence between China and Latin America makes any U.S. claim to promote a "decoupling" between them impractical. Digital technologies and critical minerals will be in the crosshairs of the North American National Security Strategy

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EUA, China e América Latina: até onde vai a Doutrina Donroe?

A interdependência comercial e geopolítica entre a China e a América Latina torna impraticável qualquer pretensão dos EUA de promover um "desacoplamento" entre elas. As tecnologias digitais e os minerais críticos estarão na mira da Estratégia de Segurança Nacional norte-americana

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Dire Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint for Global Food and Energy

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has triggered a multi-layered shock to the global economy and financial markets. The severity of global consequences will depend on the duration of disruptions—particularly to the Strait of Hormuz—and the policy responses of governments and central banks. We approach here the transmission channels through which conflict has affected global energy markets, commodity supply and prices, transportation systems, macroeconomic conditions, and financial markets. Rather than focusing only on oil and gas supply, we trace how the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and related infrastructure has potentially propagated through shipping, aviation, food costs, remittances, inflation expectations, and central-bank responses. Although short-term disruptions may produce volatility without structural transformation, prolonged conflict risks leading to stagflation, change of trade patterns, and reshaping global financial dynamics.

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The fiasco of Mr. Trump’s emergency tariffs

The IEEPA tariff journey did not end well. It turned out to be an illegal tax based on flawed economic principles, was reluctantly revoked under belated legal pressure, and compensated those who were said to be the object of "punishment."  The insistence on seeking punishment through other legal means risks extending the fiasco, keeping uncertainty high along the way.

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O fiasco das tarifas de emergência de Trump

A jornada das tarifas da Ieepa foi o exemplo perfeito do fiasco da política do governo Trump. Acabou sendo um imposto ilegal baseado em princípios econômicos equivocados, revogado a contragosto sob pressão legal tardia e ressarcindo quem foi dito ser o objeto de “punição”. A insistência em buscar a punição por outras vias legais arrisca estender o fiasco, mantendo a incerteza lá em cima.

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The Multiple Frontlines of the U.S.-China Technological Rivalry

The U.S.–China technological rivalry has become a central axis of global economic and geopolitical competition. While the United States continues to lead in frontier innovation—most notably in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI)—China has consolidated strengths in large-scale implementation, manufacturing capacity, and control over critical segments of global supply chains. These advantages are especially visible in clean energy technologies and in the processing and refinement of critical minerals and rare earths. The rivalry now unfolds across multiple frontlines, extending beyond innovation itself to encompass infrastructure, energy availability, and technology deployment across the New South. Its outcome will depend less on breakthrough inventions alone than on each country’s capacity to integrate technology, industrial policy, and energy systems into cohesive national strategies.

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The Silent Majority of the New South: Small States, Davos 2026, and the Last Line of International Law

This article examines the quiet but profound implications of the erosion of U.S.-led hegemony for small and vulnerable states of the New South. While the post-1945 international order was never egalitarian, it offered predictability: power was organized through law, and sovereignty for weaker states rested less on justice than on procedural stability. Davos 2026 marked a turning point in the public acknowledgment of that system’s unraveling. Statements by leading Western figures revealed not a revolt against American power, but a growing recognition that the United States is increasingly retreating from the obligations that once distinguished hegemony from dominance. As rules give way to discretion, and institutions to transactional bargaining, the capacity of states to navigate global disorder is becoming sharply unequal. The article argues that this shift is existential for small states—particularly in the Middle East and North Africa—whose sovereignty depends almost entirely on international law and multilateral institutions. Unlike middle powers, they lack buffers, leverage, and visibility; their vulnerability rarely translates into voice. Climate change, debt distress, and security dependence deepen this asymmetry, making legal obligation—not power—their primary shield. Far from idealism, international law functions for these states as the infrastructure of survival. The weakening or bypassing of multilateral rules thus constitutes a systemic stress test: not of global morality, but of global stability. If the last line of international law collapses, the resulting order will not be more realistic—it will be more coercive, exclusionary, and ultimately less durable.

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