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Otaviano Canuto draws on extensive experience working in multilateral institutions, government, and academia across a wide range of markets and countries to assist clients navigate challenges and opportunities.
Latest articles
The Global War of Subsidies
Janet Yellen warns China against flooding the world with cheap exports of clean energy.
Excess industrial capacity and government support in China’s clean energy sector were discussed by US Treasury officials.
The US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Australia are implementing subsidy programs to protect their domestic industries and compete with China.
Demographic Dynamics and Immigration Policies in High-Income Countries
Most high-income countries will experience declines in their populations over the next few decades. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and risks of economic stagnation.
Immigration may be a way for those countries to mitigate the tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, brain drain is a risk.
The policy paper presents the case of Japan, a nation that has grappled with the consequences of a declining and aging population for several years, as an example for other countries destined to confront similar circumstances in the forthcoming decades.
A Guerra Global de Subsídios
Qualquer avaliação econômica de custos e benefícios desses programas de subsídios enfrenta uma dificuldade inerente ao se levar em conta que os resultados buscados não são estritamente econômicos. Existe o risco de os países, especialmente os EUA e a China, adotarem definições cada vez mais amplas do que constitui um setor estratégico, disparando novas “guerras globais de subsídios”
AI and the Future of Government: Unexpected Effects and Critical Challenges
Based on observable facts, this policy paper explores some of the less-acknowledged yet critically important ways in which artificial intelligence (AI) may affect the public sector and its role. Our focus is on those areas where AI’s influence might be understated currently, but where it has substantial implications for future government policies and actions.
We identify four main areas of impact that could redefine the public sector role, require new answers from it, or both. These areas are the emergence of a new language-based digital divide, jobs displacement in the public administration, disruptions in revenue mobilization, and declining government responsiveness.
This discussion not only identifies critical areas but also underscores the importance of transcending conventional approaches in tackling them. As we examine these challenges, we shed light on their significance, seeking to inform policymakers and stakeholders about the nuanced ways in which AI may quietly, yet profoundly, alter the public sector landscape.
The Middle-Income Trap and Resource-Based Growth: The Case of Brazil
This paper examines Brazil’s economic growth patterns over the last three decades and identifies a missed opportunity for the country to attain high-income status by the mid-2010s. Instead, Brazil has suffered from low productivity growth, and has made little progress in transforming its production and export structures in favor of higher value-added activities. This premature de-industrialization makes it challenging for Brazil to transition from its long-standing upper-middle-income status. Brazil now has a limited, two-decade window to catch up with high-income nations before losing its demographic dividend, potentially leaving the country with an aging population without achieving high-income status. Therefore, it is crucial for Brazil to raise productivity growth through competition policies, and by embracing technological change. Achieving this goal requires comprehensive trade reforms to improve domestic competition, and to harness technology advancements effectively. This paper discusses key elements of such a policy framework within the broader context of a development strategy aimed at breaking free from the middle-income trap.
Os desafios do crescimento econômico da China
Pode-se apontar seis desafios a serem enfrentados pelo crescimento econômico chinês nos próximos anos.
Xi Jinping deveria reforçar a proteção social e retomar a proposta de seu antecessor de “rebalancear” empresas públicas e privadas para contornar desafios, escreve Otaviano Canuto
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