Combinação de bolha de IA com desempenho inferior na parte de baixo da pirâmide é o cenário mais provável. Caso a demanda por mão de obra se acople ao crescimento geral, a inflação continuará persistente e os mercados de trabalho terão de se contrair no final do próximo ano, diz o articulista...
Trade war between the United States and China has a truce, but the use of reciprocal "choke points" will remain possible.
Guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos e China tem trégua, mas o recurso a “pontos de estrangulamento” recíprocos continuará possível.
What the U.S. has lost in domestic manufacturing, it may have gained in global productive presence. Understanding the transformation of U.S. manufacturing requires an assessment of the revolutionary impact of technology. Tomorrow’s industrial jobs require completely different qualifications from yesterday’s, and even successful production reshoring wouldn't necessarily restore the industrial employment levels of previous decades. Some confusion about U.S. ‘deindustrialization’ also arises from how sectoral GDP is measured. A significant share of value added in industrial production, especially high-value activities, is classified as ‘services’. The deindustrialization narrative, and the political platform of ‘Make America Great Again’ by reindustrializing it, reflects an identification between the evolution of U.S. manufacturing during globalization and the unequal appropriation of economic gains by the top of the income pyramid. The real strategic question for the U.S. isn't how to compete with China in low value-added goods production, but how to maintain and expand its leadership in high-tech segments, design, innovation, and global value chain coordination.
Global economic growth has been more resilient than expected, as the artificial intelligence-led growth seems to be compensating for the negative impacts of trade conflicts. Overstretched asset values and slowing jobs growth may be signaling that the balanced crossing of those two paths will be challenged.
Relatório da OCDE mostra uma economia global dividida entre o impulso da inteligência artificial e o peso da guerra tarifária dos EUA. Enquanto a IA sustenta investimentos e crescimento, tarifas e desaceleração do emprego projetam riscos à resiliência mundial, diz o articulista
The Trump tariff saga hasn't reached its climax yet, but a shift in import sources is evident. Regarding the trade balance, everything will depend on the continuation of the boom driven by high-tech investment. The harmful effects of tariffs on the rest of the economy will take time to unfold.
However politically convenient narratives about the United States "abandoning" manufacturing may be, the reality is more complex and less gloomy than many assume. In fact, US manufacturing has not disappeared, but it did internationalize as American companies pursued higher-value opportunities at home.
A trama da novela das tarifas de Trump ainda não chegou a seus momentos de ápice, mas se enxerga uma rotação nas fontes de importações. No que diz respeito ao saldo comercial, por seu turno, tudo vai depender da continuidade do boom puxado por investimentos em alta tecnologia. Os efeitos deletérios das tarifas sobre o resto vão tomar tempo até o enredo se desdobrar.
The international monetary system has been dominated by the U.S. dollar since the Second World War. The hegemony of the greenback cut across the end of the dollar exchange standard established by the Bretton Woods Agreement, and came out from the global financial crisis—and the euro crisis—even stronger than before. The euro area and China are taking steps to strengthen the international role of their currencies, but surmounting the inner strength of the dollar-based monetary system cannot be taken for granted. This is visible in two aspects of the rising profiles of competitors to the dollar-based system: the growing use of local currencies in cross-border payments between China and other countries—particularly the BRICS—and the role played by the euro and the renminbi in cross-country financial safety nets.
Brazil went from a quite impressive economic performance during much of the twentieth century to a period of mediocre growth from 1980 onwards. This shift has positioned the country as a textbook case of the “middle-income trap”. This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980s—notably the globalization of firms and industries—combined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupted the path of industrial and technological development that Brazil had pursued since the 1930s. In essence, growth strategies based on the scale of the domestic market ceased to be effective. The innovation and economic challenges the country now faces cannot be addressed without a clear understanding of these processes. The analysis carries important policy implications, centered on the need for less protectionism and greater internationalization of firms. Reversing the inward-looking orientation of Brazilian industry is a key objective for any policy aiming to stimulate increased business R&D and innovation.
The costs of Brazilian tariff retaliation would likely be high for its economy, because of risks of even higher U.S. tariffs and because of Brazil’s domestic use of current imports from the U.S. At the same time, it is unimaginable that Brazil will fall into the trap of accepting a ‘political’ negotiation plan. Brazil will have to count on some eventual support from U.S. domestic opponents of the tariffs, in addition to any other trade matters that may come up in bilateral conversations between Lula and Trump that may take place in the near future. Beyond that, Brazil will just have to bite the bullet.
As tarifas de Trump também têm uma dimensão “transacional”, a ser ignorada pelo Brasil
This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and developing economies.
Developing countries have few options to deal with the ongoing tariff war amid unpredictable shifts in global supply chains. However, regional economic integration offers a strategic path of development in these uncertain and challenging times. Helped by geographical proximity and cultural familiarity, countries in a region can benefit greatly from promoting trade with one another, reaping the benefits of comparative advantages and economies of scale—if they are able to establish a large enough single market. Asia has successfully used regional cooperation and integration as stepping stones in its interactions with the rest of the world during the course of its economic development. Asia can thus offer lessons that other regions—especially Africa and Latin America—can benefit from.