EUA, China e América Latina: até onde vai a Doutrina Donroe?

A interdependência comercial e geopolítica entre a China e a América Latina torna impraticável qualquer pretensão dos EUA de promover um "desacoplamento" entre elas. As tecnologias digitais e os minerais críticos estarão na mira da Estratégia de Segurança Nacional norte-americana

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Dire Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint for Global Food and Energy

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has triggered a multi-layered shock to the global economy and financial markets. The severity of global consequences will depend on the duration of disruptions—particularly to the Strait of Hormuz—and the policy responses of governments and central banks. We approach here the transmission channels through which conflict has affected global energy markets, commodity supply and prices, transportation systems, macroeconomic conditions, and financial markets. Rather than focusing only on oil and gas supply, we trace how the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and related infrastructure has potentially propagated through shipping, aviation, food costs, remittances, inflation expectations, and central-bank responses. Although short-term disruptions may produce volatility without structural transformation, prolonged conflict risks leading to stagflation, change of trade patterns, and reshaping global financial dynamics.

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The fiasco of Mr. Trump’s emergency tariffs

The IEEPA tariff journey did not end well. It turned out to be an illegal tax based on flawed economic principles, was reluctantly revoked under belated legal pressure, and compensated those who were said to be the object of "punishment."  The insistence on seeking punishment through other legal means risks extending the fiasco, keeping uncertainty high along the way.

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O fiasco das tarifas de emergência de Trump

A jornada das tarifas da Ieepa foi o exemplo perfeito do fiasco da política do governo Trump. Acabou sendo um imposto ilegal baseado em princípios econômicos equivocados, revogado a contragosto sob pressão legal tardia e ressarcindo quem foi dito ser o objeto de “punição”. A insistência em buscar a punição por outras vias legais arrisca estender o fiasco, mantendo a incerteza lá em cima.

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The Multiple Frontlines of the U.S.-China Technological Rivalry

The U.S.–China technological rivalry has become a central axis of global economic and geopolitical competition. While the United States continues to lead in frontier innovation—most notably in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI)—China has consolidated strengths in large-scale implementation, manufacturing capacity, and control over critical segments of global supply chains. These advantages are especially visible in clean energy technologies and in the processing and refinement of critical minerals and rare earths. The rivalry now unfolds across multiple frontlines, extending beyond innovation itself to encompass infrastructure, energy availability, and technology deployment across the New South. Its outcome will depend less on breakthrough inventions alone than on each country’s capacity to integrate technology, industrial policy, and energy systems into cohesive national strategies.

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The Silent Majority of the New South: Small States, Davos 2026, and the Last Line of International Law

This article examines the quiet but profound implications of the erosion of U.S.-led hegemony for small and vulnerable states of the New South. While the post-1945 international order was never egalitarian, it offered predictability: power was organized through law, and sovereignty for weaker states rested less on justice than on procedural stability. Davos 2026 marked a turning point in the public acknowledgment of that system’s unraveling. Statements by leading Western figures revealed not a revolt against American power, but a growing recognition that the United States is increasingly retreating from the obligations that once distinguished hegemony from dominance. As rules give way to discretion, and institutions to transactional bargaining, the capacity of states to navigate global disorder is becoming sharply unequal. The article argues that this shift is existential for small states—particularly in the Middle East and North Africa—whose sovereignty depends almost entirely on international law and multilateral institutions. Unlike middle powers, they lack buffers, leverage, and visibility; their vulnerability rarely translates into voice. Climate change, debt distress, and security dependence deepen this asymmetry, making legal obligation—not power—their primary shield. Far from idealism, international law functions for these states as the infrastructure of survival. The weakening or bypassing of multilateral rules thus constitutes a systemic stress test: not of global morality, but of global stability. If the last line of international law collapses, the resulting order will not be more realistic—it will be more coercive, exclusionary, and ultimately less durable.

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Quão sustentável é o “K” econômico dos EUA?

Combinação de bolha de IA com desempenho inferior na parte de baixo da pirâmide é o cenário mais provável. Caso a demanda por mão de obra se acople ao crescimento geral, a inflação continuará persistente e os mercados de trabalho terão de se contrair no final do próximo ano, diz o articulista...

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