Globalistas de Davos estão em recesso
Ausência de autoridades demonstra que Fórum de Davos não saiu ileso da retração da globalização nos últimos tempos, escreve Otaviano Canuto.
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Addressing Africa’s Persistent Debt Problem
Due to the stagnation of official development aid following the global financial crisis, and the challenges faced by African countries in mobilising domestic resources to finance their massive needs for infrastructure and socio-economic development, a re-accumulation of debt in the region began in 2011. To effectively tackle the massive challenges, it is imperative to contemplate a reconfiguration and expansion of existing debt relief programmes. Rather than viewing debt-related difficulties solely as matters of short-term liquidity, it is essential to acknowledge the underlying solvency problems that necessitate long-term remedies. A well-established sovereign bond market will enable African countries to mobilise extra financial resources for their increasing social and economic needs. The current context, marked by tightening financial conditions, especially for developing countries, has shown how favourable it would be to leverage a domestic and deep local-currency sovereign debt market. Unless Africa adopts an ambitious tax policy, enabling authorities to raise the due amount of tax, the funding issue will remain unresolved.
2024 também será ano de moderação na economia brasileira
Crescimento, inflação e juros serão menores que em 2023.
Whither China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by Xi Jinping, completed its tenth anniversary this year. It has entered a third phase. After the “peak” (2014-17) and “correction” (from 2018 onward) phases, the focus will now be on “smaller, smarter” projects, in coordination with the country’s clean energy industrial policies.
Onde foi parar a Nova Rota da Seda?
A Iniciativa da Nova Rota da Seda (ou Belt and Road Initiative, BRI), lançada por Xi Jinping, completou seu décimo aniversário este ano. Está neste momento em uma terceira fase.
2024 será um ano de moderação na economia global
Entidades internacionais estimam retorno a tendência de crescimento e inflação convergindo para metas de bancos centrais até 2025, escreve Otaviano Canuto
Resilience and Realignment of Global Trade
Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. However, a partial realignment seems to be underway, reflecting the more durable side of those recent shocks. This is probably leading to higher costs and prices on the margin, in the case of realignments done to overcome shocks of a geopolitical nature. The answer seems to be that global trade has been resilient, although it is undergoing some realignment.
A resiliência com realinhamento do comércio global
Não há sinais de inversão na tendência longa de maior integração comercial global das últimas décadas, especialmente na Ásia. Contudo, há um realinhamento parcial, refletindo o lado mais durável dos choques mais recentes. Provavelmente com algum maior custo na margem, no caso de realinhamento para fins de contorno a choques de natureza geopolítica.
A Tale of Two Technology Wars: Semiconductors and Clean Energy
The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to and refinement of critical raw materials (CRM), which are key upstream components of the corresponding value chains, encompassing mineral-rich emerging markets and developing economies. The way in which the U.S. and the European Union approach the goal of self-sufficiency, as well as access to and refinement of CRMs, will make a big difference to their stakes in the technology wars.
Os impactos econômicos globais da guerra entre Hamas e Israel
A oferta e os preços de energia são os principais canais de transmissão econômica global da guerra entre Israel e Hamas. Os efeitos do conflito nos mercados globais de matérias-primas têm sido limitados até agora. Esse quadro dará lugar a mudanças acentuadas caso o conflito se agrave e se alastre. Para além do efeito devastador sobre vidas trazido por uma extensão e agravamento da guerra, não é o caso de se menosprezar os efeitos sobre pobres e a segurança alimentar e energética no planeta.
Jumpstarting the Brazilian Economy
Everything about Brazil is oversized – the population (at 217 million, the largest in Latin America), the land mass (fifth largest on earth) and by almost everyone’s reckoning, the economic potential. But so, alas, are its chronic problems that range from a lack of economic mobility to social divisions that undermine its capacity to make collective sacrifices in the quest for prosperity. There are signs – there have long been signs – that Brazil could pull itself up by the bootstraps. Much of the world rides in passenger jets made in Brazil, works in office buildings erected with Brazilian steel, eats soy grown in Brazil and learns from Brazil’s expertise in extracting oil in ultra-deep waters. Three of the eight largest hydropower installations on earth are located in Brazil, and more than half of Brazil’s energy consumption is derived from renewable sources. But to turn promise into plenty, Brazil needs to make hard decisions that prioritize growth and poverty reduction over the care and feeding of entrenched interest groups. It won’t be easy – but the gains would be worth the pain.
The Dollar-Renminbi Tango: The Impacts of Argentina’s Potential Dollarization on its Relations with China
The surprising victory of Javier Milei, the unconventional ‘anarcho-capitalist’ candidate, in the August primaries ahead of Argentina’s October 2023 general election, can be largely credited to his commitment to dollarize the Argentine economy, a move perceived as the ultimate solution to bring an end to the nation's economic turmoil. The potential shift from the local currency to the dollar has sparked concerns about Argentina's bilateral currency swap line with China. This swap line plays a crucial role in their bilateral relations and has also served as a means for Argentina to fulfill its debt obligations to the International Monetary Fund. The swap line is seen as a key element in preventing Argentina from defaulting on its IMF obligations, which is vital for both its economic and international financial stability. Given the significance of these developments, this article explores Argentina's potential shift towards dollarization and its implications for the country's relationship with China. It does so by assessing the critical role of the bilateral currency swap line between the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in backing Argentina's external payments. The analysis traces the history of the BCRA-PBOC swap line, highlighting how Argentina has relied increasingly on it during financial crises. It also examines the potential challenges and uncertainties that may arise if Argentina does indeed move towards dollarization, including the fate of the swap line and how it would be managed. Additionally, the article reflects on China's strategic approach to swap agreements with partner countries, emphasizing its flexibility in sustaining stable trade relations, even in the face of undesirable political shifts. Finally, it underscores the magnitude of China-Argentina trade relations, particularly in terms of Argentina's significance in helping China secure strategic resources, and how these relations impact Argentina's economic recovery. In conclusion, the fate of the BCRA-PBOC swap line is deeply intertwined with the broader economic and political dynamics between China and Argentina. Both nations are likely to seek pragmatic solutions to address the challenges posed by Argentina's potential shift towards dollarization, thereby ensuring the continuation of stable bilateral relations.
O que está acontecendo com taxas longas de juros na economia global
Rendimento de títulos dos EUA de 10 anos saltou de 3,8% ao ano no final do segundo trimestre para acima de 4,7%. Que causas podem ser apontadas como explicação para elevações nas taxas de juros nos títulos de longa duração em relação às taxas nos mercados monetários, que refletem as taxas básicas implementadas por bancos centrais? Duas são possíveis.
Central Bank Digital Currencies in Africa
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are digital versions of cash issued and regulated by central banks. They correspond to digital money denominated in the national unit of account and liability of the central bank. By mid-2022, almost 100 CBDCs were being subject to research or testing. Two had already been launched, one of them in Nigeria (eNaira) and the other in the Bahamas. According to a survey by the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) last year, 90% of central banks there approached were undertaking CBDC analysis or projects in the previous year, with 26% already implementing pilot projects (Kosse and Mattei, 2022). Potential benefits from CBDCs include the facilitation of financial inclusion, more resilient domestic payments, and enhanced competition. Beyond improving access to money, payment efficiency and lower transaction costs may be attained. On the other hand, some risks and challenges will have to be faced. As we approach in this chapter, African central banks are part of such a global trend. Most are yet in the beginning (research and analysis), while Nigeria has already issued a retail CBDC, and South Africa and Ghana are implementing pilot projects (wholesale and retail, respectively). Without CBDCs can enhance the public good nature of the monetary system, with the central bank at the core of safe, low-cost, and inclusive payments. Some broad risks and challenges are also highlighted. First, we summarize how a monetary system can be strengthened with digital finance and new private forms of digital money if not being based on cryptocurrencies. Second, we approach the motivations of African central banks for CBDCs. Finally, we call attention to some of the challenges and risks accompanying such a move to CBDCs.
Growth Implications of a Fractured Trading System
An assessment of the implications for growth—particularly the costs—of moving towards a fractured trading system can use as a benchmark what happened during the period of what is usually called hyper-globalization or globalization 2.0 Substantial growth in GDP per capita in emerging markets and developing economies, as well as reductions in poverty rates and lower per capita GDP inequality among countries were major achievements. The transmission channels of the trade fragmentation will be a reversal of the path by which those gains were attained.