The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture: Toward a System that Delivers for the South

The Policy Center for the New South and the Atlantic Council Africa Center have jointly released a report on “The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture: Toward a System that Delivers for the South,” by Otaviano Canuto, Hafez Ghanem, Youssef El Jai, and Stéphane Le Bouder. This report issues specific and urgent calls for reform, including more representative global governance, increasing the World Bank’s operational and financial capacity, prioritizing programs that would integrate Africa into the global economy, connecting the continent’s critical infrastructure and trade routes, and increasing participation and collaboration with bilateral public and private lenders and investors, such as China, sovereign wealth funds, and multinationals. 2024 marks eighty years of the Bretton Woods system. It is crucial to implement extensive reforms and substantial policies to support African nations’ efforts and maximize their chances to unleash their immense economic potential. These recommendations presented during the 2024 IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings reflect the urgency of both operational and more inclusive reforms for the African continent.

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China’s Economic Growth on Target Despite Challenges

IMF projects China's economic growth at 4.6% and 4.1% for this year and next. China's official target is 5%. Six challenges to China's economic growth include the real estate sector, local government debt, domestic demand, external resistance to China's exports, change in foreign investor sentiment, and demographic decline. Despite challenges, China's economic growth remained steady in Q1 2024, with exports and manufacturing investment compensating for the drag from the property sector.

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O lado fiscal do “novo normal” nas economias avançadas

Há um "novo normal" com custos de financiamento significativamente mais altos do que na última década. Se melhorias nos saldos primários dos governos não puderem ser alcançadas para compensar taxas reais mais altas e crescimento potencial mais baixo, a dívida soberana continuará a crescer. Isso também poderá trazer implicações para a saúde do setor financeiro. Taxas de juros mais altas, níveis mais altos de dívida soberana e uma parcela maior dessa dívida no balanço do setor bancário tornam o setor financeiro mais vulnerável. Uma reconstrução gradual e crível de amortecedores fiscais que garantam a sustentabilidade de longo prazo de dívidas soberanas será apropriada no "novo normal" do regime de políticas macroeconômicas.

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The Global War of Subsidies

Janet Yellen warns China against flooding the world with cheap exports of clean energy. Excess industrial capacity and government support in China's clean energy sector were discussed by US Treasury officials. The US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Australia are implementing subsidy programs to protect their domestic industries and compete with China.

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Demographic Dynamics and Immigration Policies in High-Income Countries

Most high-income countries will experience declines in their populations over the next few decades. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and risks of economic stagnation. Immigration may be a way for those countries to mitigate the tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, brain drain is a risk. The policy paper presents the case of Japan, a nation that has grappled with the consequences of a declining and aging population for several years, as an example for other countries destined to confront similar circumstances in the forthcoming decades.

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A Guerra Global de Subsídios

Qualquer avaliação econômica de custos e benefícios desses programas de subsídios enfrenta uma dificuldade inerente ao se levar em conta que os resultados buscados não são estritamente econômicos. Existe o risco de os países, especialmente os EUA e a China, adotarem definições cada vez mais amplas do que constitui um setor estratégico, disparando novas “guerras globais de subsídios”

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AI and the Future of Government: Unexpected Effects and Critical Challenges

Based on observable facts, this policy paper explores some of the less-acknowledged yet critically important ways in which artificial intelligence (AI) may affect the public sector and its role. Our focus is on those areas where AI's influence might be understated currently, but where it has substantial implications for future government policies and actions. We identify four main areas of impact that could redefine the public sector role, require new answers from it, or both. These areas are the emergence of a new language-based digital divide, jobs displacement in the public administration, disruptions in revenue mobilization, and declining government responsiveness. This discussion not only identifies critical areas but also underscores the importance of transcending conventional approaches in tackling them. As we examine these challenges, we shed light on their significance, seeking to inform policymakers and stakeholders about the nuanced ways in which AI may quietly, yet profoundly, alter the public sector landscape.

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The Middle-Income Trap and Resource-Based Growth: The Case of Brazil

This paper examines Brazil's economic growth patterns over the last three decades and identifies a missed opportunity for the country to attain high-income status by the mid-2010s. Instead, Brazil has suffered from low productivity growth, and has made little progress in transforming its production and export structures in favor of higher value-added activities. This premature de-industrialization makes it challenging for Brazil to transition from its long-standing upper-middle-income status. Brazil now has a limited, two-decade window to catch up with high-income nations before losing its demographic dividend, potentially leaving the country with an aging population without achieving high-income status. Therefore, it is crucial for Brazil to raise productivity growth through competition policies, and by embracing technological change. Achieving this goal requires comprehensive trade reforms to improve domestic competition, and to harness technology advancements effectively. This paper discusses key elements of such a policy framework within the broader context of a development strategy aimed at breaking free from the middle-income trap.

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Os desafios do crescimento econômico da China

Pode-se apontar seis desafios a serem enfrentados pelo crescimento econômico chinês nos próximos anos. Xi Jinping deveria reforçar a proteção social e retomar a proposta de seu antecessor de “rebalancear” empresas públicas e privadas para contornar desafios, escreve Otaviano Canuto

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Emerging Markets and Developing Economies in the Global Financial Safety Net

When countries face external financial shocks, they must rely on financial buffers to counter such shocks. The global financial safety net is the set of institutions and arrangements that provide lines of defense for economies against such shocks. From any individual country standpoint, there are three lines of defense in their external financial safety nets: international reserves, pooled resources (swap lines and plurilateral financing arrangements), and the International Monetary Fund. We argue here that there is a need to extend and facilitate access to the ultimate global financial safety net layer: the IMF. We illustrate that by pointing out how Morocco and Mexico have boosted their defensive power by having access to IMF precautionary lines of credit.

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The Tribe of Davos Globalists Feels the Downturn of Globalization

The Davos Forum is so identified with the expansion and strengthening of globalization in the decades in which it flourished, that it could not emerge unscathed from globalization’s partial retrenchment in recent times. Fears about deglobalization must have been predominant.

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