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Otaviano Canuto draws on extensive experience working in multilateral institutions, government, and academia across a wide range of markets and countries to assist clients navigate challenges and opportunities.
Latest articles
The Spring of Tariff Regret
The IMF has reviewed the global growth downward, highlighting the impacts of Trump’s tariff war and warning about financial and economic risks. Although the negative effects of tariffs have already been “somewhat priced in,” according to Tobias Adrian (IMF), equity and bond prices could “certainly” fall further if negotiations fail. So, it’s either successful negotiations or further stress and downgrades.
A primavera do arrependimento tarifário
O FMI revisou o crescimento global para baixo, destacando os impactos da guerra tarifária de Trump e alertando sobre riscos financeiros e econômicos. Embora os efeitos negativos das tarifas já tenham sido “de certa forma precificados”, segundo Tobias Adrian (FMI), os preços das ações e títulos podem “certamente” cair ainda mais se as negociações fracassarem. Portanto, ou negociações bem-sucedidas ou mais estresse e rebaixamentos.
How to Make Carbon Pricing Work for Africa
As the world prepares for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, African countries have an opportunity to advocate for equitable carbon-pricing mechanisms that align climate action with sustainable development. While cutting emissions is important, so, too, is ensuring fairness and equity for the communities most vulnerable to climate change.
Trump 2.0 promete um choque econômico global
Se republicano sobrepujar limites legais do mercado internacional e implementar algo próximo do que prometeu, economia global sofrerá fortes impactos
Moedas locais dos BRICS e a desdolarização
O uso crescente de moedas locais em pagamentos externos, nos BRICS ou fora deles, será parte do que já chamamos de “desdolarização devagar e limitada”. Como parcela das reservas globais, o dólar americano caiu de um pouco acima de 70% em 2000 para um pouco abaixo de 60% em 2022. Contudo, enquanto uma moeda local não for plenamente conversível, permanecendo sujeita a regulações restringindo a liquidez e a disponibilidade de ativos – como permanece sendo o renminbi – não cumprirá a função de reserva externa de valor para o grosso dos agentes na economia global.
Capital, Labor, and Land in the Digital Transition
The digital revolution is bringing about a dramatic shift in power, from labor to capital. We assess what the impact of this transformation might be on land as a factor of production.
The digital revolution is not happening in a historical vacuum. It unfolds within a framework of confrontation or collusion between market forces and government forces. Depending on the market power that companies can exercise, the digital transition will have different impacts on income distributions between capital, labor, and land, as well as on income distribution within capital itself.
This digital transition is advancing during a period of history marked by the worsening of four major crises, the effects of which are interconnected: international, environmental, democratic, and distributive.
Urban land management, based on collective purpose, must be recognized as a strategic asset in building a future in which progress is guided by equity, resilience, and social responsibility, with human dignity and the environment at the center of decisions.
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