Threat of ‘currency bullying’

The possibility of mutually damaging financial volatility in the US and China may limit the extent of 'currency bullying' being used as a proxy in the countries' trade war. Nonetheless, rhetoric from Washington is likely to remain clamorous as the US trade and current account deficits rise and global imbalances worsen.

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Overlapping Globalizations

Current technological developments in manufacturing are likely to lead to a partial reversal of the wave of fragmentation and global value chains that was at the core of the rise of North-South trade from 1990 onward. At the same time, China – the main hub of the global-growth-cum-structural-change of that period – may attempt to extend the previous wave through its One Belt, One Road initiative.

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