Read more about the article Por que o crescimento chinês vem desacelerando

Por que o crescimento chinês vem desacelerando

Números da economia chinesa divulgados desde o início do mês mostram uma desaceleração em seu crescimento. Novos surtos de Covid-19 no contexto da política de Covid zero, a queda do setor imobiliário e ondas de calor vêm segurando o ritmo da recuperação econômica do país. Há uma percepção de esgotamento da alavanca de superinvestimentos imobiliários e na infraestrutura. As autoridades chinesas estão optando por salvaguardar sua economia das vulnerabilidades financeiras, mesmo que ao preço de um crescimento do PIB abaixo das metas oficiais.

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Read more about the article Dollar dominance will remain

Dollar dominance will remain

The heavy financial sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine sparked speculations that the weaponization of access to reserves in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen would spark a division in the international monetary order. There has been a reduction in the degree of "dollar dominance” with the dollar's share of central bank reserves falling since the beginning of the century. The relative dominance of the dollar appears to be declining but at a very gradual pace.

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Read more about the article A dominância do dólar vai continuar

A dominância do dólar vai continuar

As pesadas sanções financeiras sobre a Rússia depois da invasão da Ucrânia suscitaram especulações de que o uso armado do acesso a reservas em dólares, euros, libras e ienes iria suscitar uma divisão na ordem monetária internacional. A dominância relativa do dólar parece declinante, mas em ritmo muito gradual.

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Read more about the article China’s renminbi needs convertibility to internationalize

China’s renminbi needs convertibility to internationalize

Commercial transactions and reserves of central banks and other global public investors could strengthen the position of the Renminbi as an alternative currency to the dollar, euro, yen and pound sterling. However, the qualitative leap towards the internationalization of the Chinese currency as a full reserve currency will only happen when confidence in its convertibility is sufficient to convince unofficial (private) investors to hold much more reserves denominated in it.

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Read more about the article Moeda chinesa precisa de conversibilidade para internacionalizar, escreve Otaviano Canuto

Moeda chinesa precisa de conversibilidade para internacionalizar, escreve Otaviano Canuto

Enquanto transações comerciais e reservas de bancos centrais e outros investidores públicos globais poderão reforçar a posição do Renminbi como moeda alternativa ao dólar, euro, yen e libra esterlina, o salto qualitativo para a internacionalização da moeda chinesa como moeda reserva só ocorrerá quando a confiança em sua conversibilidade for suficiente para convencer investidores não-oficiais (privados) a guardar reservas nela denominadas.

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Read more about the article China’s economic rebalancing

China’s economic rebalancing

China’s growth trajectory in the second decade of the century has been one of a rebalancing toward a new growth pattern, one in which domestic consumption is to rise relative to investments and exports, while a drive toward consolidating local insertion up the ladder of value added in global value chains also takes place. Services should also keep rising relative to manufacturing. Declining GDP growth rates from two digits in previous decades to 6% in 2019 - and likely lower ahead – would be the counterpart to rising wages and domestic mass-consumption, and to the transition toward higher weights of services and high tech. We point out two major challenges in the rebalancing. First, the transition toward a less investment- and export-dependent growth model has been taking place from a starting point of exceptionally low consumption-to-GDP ratios. Besides high profit-to-wages ratios, low levels of public social protection and spending lead to high household savings. An additional challenge comes from the lack of progress in rebalancing between private- and state-owned enterprises, something that is taking a toll on productivity.

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Read more about the article Climbing a High Ladder – Development in the Global Economy

Climbing a High Ladder – Development in the Global Economy

This book approaches the opportunities and challenges faced by developing countries to raise their per capita income levels during the recent phase of globalization. After dealing with the post-global financial crisis economic landscape in advanced economies, it deals with the windows of opportunity opened by trade and financial globalization for developing countries to climb the income ladder. Domestic preconditions for a developing country to benefit from those windows are then pointed out. China, Brazil, and Sub-Saharan Africa are presented as case studies. The book ends with an assessment of the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the global economy.

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Read more about the article Public financing of green innovation: Matchmaking of offers and demand for financing + Economic and Political Impacts of COVID-19 on BRICS Countries

Public financing of green innovation: Matchmaking of offers and demand for financing + Economic and Political Impacts of COVID-19 on BRICS Countries

Public financing of green innovation: Matchmaking of offers and demand for financing - Relevant recent literature states that direct and pervasive public financing has been instrumental in the development of innovative technological trajectories. The reasoning builds on: (i) the presence of finance from public sources across the entire innovation chain; (ii) the concept of ‘mission-oriented’ policies that have created new technological and industrial landscapes; and (iii) the entrepreneurial and lead investor role of public actors, willing and able to take on extreme risks, independent of the business cycle. On the other hand, public financing depends largely on the availability of funds. The available capital (human or otherwise) for different jurisdictions is different, which may motivate a case for heterogeneity of policies regarding innovation funding. ------------------- Economic and Political Impacts of COVID-19 on BRICS Countries The event, organized by GEBRICS/USP and the Department of International and Comparative Law (DIN) of the Faculty of Law, University of São Paulo, aims to bring together professors, researches, specialists and diplomatic representatives from all BRICS countries

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Read more about the article China retorna ao caminho do reequilíbrio, por Otaviano Canuto

China retorna ao caminho do reequilíbrio, por Otaviano Canuto

a economia global pós covid-19 reforçará a necessidade da China de acelerar o que ela própria chamou de “reequilíbrio” e, com a recuperação depois do mergulho profundo durante a pandemia, o foco se voltará para um retorno mais acelerado ao que estava ocorrendo anteriormente.

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Read more about the article Shapes of post-coronavirus economic recovery

Shapes of post-coronavirus economic recovery

Data recently released on the first-quarter global domestic product (GDP) performance of major economies have showed how significant the impact of COVID-19 has been on economic activity and jobs, with large contractions across the board. The ongoing global recession is poised to be worse than the “great recession” after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, especially from the standpoint of emerging market and developing economies. The depth and speed of the GDP decline will rival that of the Great Depression of the 1930s. But how swiftly will national economies recover once the pandemic has passed? And when will that happen? That will depend on how successful the containment of coronavirus and exit strategies will be, as well as on how cost-effective will be the policies designed to deal with the negative economic effects of coronavirus.

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Read more about the article Competing for Influence: China in Latin America

Competing for Influence: China in Latin America

Until recently, China had little interest in Latin America. Now, its investment is transforming the region. Great Decisions investigates this new alignment and the prospect of direct competition with the United States. ----------------- The Foreign Policy Association produced a series of documentaries called Great Decisions 2020 to be broadcast on TV by PBS (Public Broadcasting System) and followed by community group discussions all over the US. I participated in 2 episodes. The pandemic has been forcing the cancellation of huge numbers of Great Decisions groups all over the country, so they decided to go ahead and put all of this season’s episodes on YouTube for free. Here’s the China/Latin America episode 

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Read more about the article How Coronavirus Poses New Risks to Latin America’s Sputtering Economies
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - JANUARY 31 : Passengers are seen wearing masks at Galeao International Airport in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on January 31, 2020 following Coronavirus outbreak. The new coronavirus epidemic has killed 106 people and infected more than 4,500 in China and 56 more confirmed cases in at least 18 countries, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). (Photo by Fabio Teixeira/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

How Coronavirus Poses New Risks to Latin America’s Sputtering Economies

China’s economy has come to a sudden stop. Outside of China, the impact of the slowdown has already been felt, with companies like Apple and Land Rover warning of lower production, as parts for their products simply fail to arrive on time. For Latin America, which counts China as its largest trade partner overall, the risks are also piling up. Here we approach four main channels through which the shock to China’s economy may be felt in Latin America.

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Read more about the article Coronavírus: o impacto na economia global e na economia brasileira

Coronavírus: o impacto na economia global e na economia brasileira

O surto do #Coronavírus originado na #China trouxe pânico global ao setor de saúde. Mas ele não está sozinho... Os mercados mundiais sentiram fortes impactos com a crise, com quedas expressivas nos principais indicadores econômicos. Nesta coluna para o #AjusteDeContas, Otaviano Canuto faz uma análise das perspectivas para a economia global sob a ótica desta epidemia. No video seguinte, abaixo, ele aborda os impactos diretos sobre a economia brasileira. O primeiro ivdeo, por sua vez, em entrevista a Record News atualiza analises para o dia 26 de fevereiro

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