Read more about the article China’s Economic Growth on Target Despite Challenges

China’s Economic Growth on Target Despite Challenges

IMF projects China's economic growth at 4.6% and 4.1% for this year and next. China's official target is 5%. Six challenges to China's economic growth include the real estate sector, local government debt, domestic demand, external resistance to China's exports, change in foreign investor sentiment, and demographic decline. Despite challenges, China's economic growth remained steady in Q1 2024, with exports and manufacturing investment compensating for the drag from the property sector.

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Read more about the article Os desafios do crescimento econômico da China

Os desafios do crescimento econômico da China

Pode-se apontar seis desafios a serem enfrentados pelo crescimento econômico chinês nos próximos anos. Xi Jinping deveria reforçar a proteção social e retomar a proposta de seu antecessor de “rebalancear” empresas públicas e privadas para contornar desafios, escreve Otaviano Canuto

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Read more about the article Whither China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

Whither China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by Xi Jinping, completed its tenth anniversary this year. It has entered a third phase. After the “peak” (2014-17) and “correction” (from 2018 onward) phases, the focus will now be on “smaller, smarter” projects, in coordination with the country’s clean energy industrial policies.

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Read more about the article A Tale of Two Technology Wars: Semiconductors and Clean Energy

A Tale of Two Technology Wars: Semiconductors and Clean Energy

The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to and refinement of critical raw materials (CRM), which are key upstream components of the corresponding value chains, encompassing mineral-rich emerging markets and developing economies. The way in which the U.S. and the European Union approach the goal of self-sufficiency, as well as access to and refinement of CRMs, will make a big difference to their stakes in the technology wars.

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Read more about the article The Dollar-Renminbi Tango: The Impacts of Argentina’s Potential Dollarization on its Relations with China

The Dollar-Renminbi Tango: The Impacts of Argentina’s Potential Dollarization on its Relations with China

The surprising victory of Javier Milei, the unconventional ‘anarcho-capitalist’ candidate, in the August primaries ahead of Argentina’s October 2023 general election, can be largely credited to his commitment to dollarize the Argentine economy, a move perceived as the ultimate solution to bring an end to the nation's economic turmoil. The potential shift from the local currency to the dollar has sparked concerns about Argentina's bilateral currency swap line with China. This swap line plays a crucial role in their bilateral relations and has also served as a means for Argentina to fulfill its debt obligations to the International Monetary Fund. The swap line is seen as a key element in preventing Argentina from defaulting on its IMF obligations, which is vital for both its economic and international financial stability. Given the significance of these developments, this article explores Argentina's potential shift towards dollarization and its implications for the country's relationship with China. It does so by assessing the critical role of the bilateral currency swap line between the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in backing Argentina's external payments. The analysis traces the history of the BCRA-PBOC swap line, highlighting how Argentina has relied increasingly on it during financial crises. It also examines the potential challenges and uncertainties that may arise if Argentina does indeed move towards dollarization, including the fate of the swap line and how it would be managed. Additionally, the article reflects on China's strategic approach to swap agreements with partner countries, emphasizing its flexibility in sustaining stable trade relations, even in the face of undesirable political shifts. Finally, it underscores the magnitude of China-Argentina trade relations, particularly in terms of Argentina's significance in helping China secure strategic resources, and how these relations impact Argentina's economic recovery. In conclusion, the fate of the BCRA-PBOC swap line is deeply intertwined with the broader economic and political dynamics between China and Argentina. Both nations are likely to seek pragmatic solutions to address the challenges posed by Argentina's potential shift towards dollarization, thereby ensuring the continuation of stable bilateral relations.

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Read more about the article Guerra por procuração nas tecnologias de energia limpa

Guerra por procuração nas tecnologias de energia limpa

As posições de China e EUA nas tecnologias de energia limpa estão hoje inversas às de semicondutores. A transição para a energia limpa está exigindo tanto a inovação científica quanto a expansão em grande escala de tecnologias estabelecidas. Os EUA permanecem excelentes na primeira, incluindo-se aí o trabalho científico na captura e no armazenamento de carbono e na sua remoção. Por outro lado, nas indústrias comerciais que estão na fase de expansão, os EUA estão atrás da China nas tecnologias de descarbonização mais críticas: solar, eólica, baterias e hidrogênio..

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Read more about the article Por que cresce o uso de moedas locais em pagamentos internacionais

Por que cresce o uso de moedas locais em pagamentos internacionais

Pares de países têm acordado liquidar transações comerciais e financeiras entre si em suas moedas locais, em geral mediante acordos bilaterais entre seus bancos centrais. A China tem sido capaz de usar sua moeda para liquidar metade de suas transações externas de comércio e investimento. O uso crescente de moedas locais em pagamentos externos será parte do que já chamamos aqui de “desdolarização devagar e limitada”. A “fragmentação” parcial do sistema global de pagamentos está em curso.

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Read more about the article The Impacts of China’s Economic Reopening on Latin America

The Impacts of China’s Economic Reopening on Latin America

The post-‘COVID zero’ reopening of the Chinese economy has improved its growth outlook: the IMF projects 5.2% growth (2023), with declines afterward up to 3.5% in 2028. Will economic reopening and Chinese growth be strong enough to repeat previous contributions to Latin America via exports of food, minerals, and oil? This time it will be more gradual and in a different direction. Financial and investment flows will also be different.

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Read more about the article Qual será o impacto da reabertura econômica chinesa sobre a América Latina?

Qual será o impacto da reabertura econômica chinesa sobre a América Latina?

A reabertura pós-COVID zero da economia chinesa melhorou suas perspectivas de crescimento: o FMI projeta crescimento de 5,2% (2023), com quedas posteriores de até 3,5% em 2028. A reabertura econômica e o crescimento chinês serão fortes o suficiente para repetir as contribuições anteriores à América Latina por meio das exportações de alimentos, minerais e petróleo? Desta vez, será mais gradual e em uma direção diferente. Os fluxos financeiros e de investimentos também serão diferentes.

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Read more about the article Latin America in the Aftermath of Europe’s War

Latin America in the Aftermath of Europe’s War

This chapter examines the impacts and durable consequences of Europe’s war (in Ukraine), overlapping with the effects of other components of the ‘perfect storm’ (pandemic, severe weather phenomenon, hunger, global inflation) for Latin America. First, we deal with the global tectonic shifts that have conditioned the region’s economic performance since the 1990s. Second, we outline the range of effects stemming from the ‘perfect storm’. The third section discusses how economic relations between China and Latin America have evolved. Finally, we frame the U.S.-China rivalry in a Latin American context.

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Read more about the article EUA e China travam guerra por procuração nos semicondutores

EUA e China travam guerra por procuração nos semicondutores

Semicondutores estão no centro da atual rivalidade entre Estados Unidos e China. Dificultar a progressão da China na sofisticação da produção de semicondutores tornou-se peça central da política dos EUA em relação ao país. O caso dos semicondutores se encaixa como uma luva no que observamos nessa coluna como reversão da globalização nos segmentos de alta tecnologia considerados sensíveis desde um ponto de vista de segurança nacional. Com custos, ainda que considerados justificáveis por autoridades governamentais.

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Read more about the article Whither China’s Economic Growth

Whither China’s Economic Growth

Chinese economic figures released since August’s beginning have shown a slowdown in its growth. New Omicron coronavirus outbreaks in the context of the Covid-zero policy, the housing slump and heat waves have been decelerating the economy’s pace. China’s current growth slowdown is an additional step in the trajectory of gradually declining rates that has accompanied the “great rebalancing” since the beginning of the 2010s. One major difference now is the perception of exhaustion of waves of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure as a lever, as compared to three previous moments since the beginning of the last decade.

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