Dire Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint for Global Food and Energy

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has triggered a multi-layered shock to the global economy and financial markets. The severity of global consequences will depend on the duration of disruptions—particularly to the Strait of Hormuz—and the policy responses of governments and central banks. We approach here the transmission channels through which conflict has affected global energy markets, commodity supply and prices, transportation systems, macroeconomic conditions, and financial markets. Rather than focusing only on oil and gas supply, we trace how the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and related infrastructure has potentially propagated through shipping, aviation, food costs, remittances, inflation expectations, and central-bank responses. Although short-term disruptions may produce volatility without structural transformation, prolonged conflict risks leading to stagflation, change of trade patterns, and reshaping global financial dynamics.

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The Global Food Price Shock

The world food price index collected for the last 60 years by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) hit its highest record in March, declining gently in April. Pandemic, war and death in Ukraine, and droughts in the last 2 years… Such a combination looks apocalyptical. Now it is adding global hunger risks, because of the food price crisis. The fiscal fragility inherited from the pandemic limits public programs to deal with issues in many developing countries.

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Premiers signes d’une baisse des prix alimentaires

L'indice de la Banque mondiale est en recul de 8 % au dernier trimestre 2011. C'est une bonne nouvelle pour les pays pauvres importateurs de produits agricoles : la Banque mondiale constate une baisse des prix alimentaires et annonce que "la perspective de leur recul en 2012 est favorable

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