Greening in the Wrong Places: Geography, Policy Distortions, and the Hidden Costs of Misallocated Green Investment

Decarbonization is reconfiguring global relative prices. As clean energy, natural capital, and location-specific assets become dominant industrial inputs, the relative cost of producing low-carbon goods is increasingly determined by geography. Two systematic distortions explain why the expected reallocation of investment toward renewable-rich economies remains incomplete. First, industrial policy interventions, including subsidies, trade barriers, and certification systems, disconnect effective prices from underlying structural costs. Second, institutional failures create demand uncertainty that leaves structurally competitive projects unbankable. Together, these distortions generate static misallocation, leading to slower technological learning, higher fiscal burdens, delayed emissions reductions, and suppressed industrial opportunities in developing economies. This paper is part of broader research on powershoring and green comparative advantage, which focuses on the idea that decarbonization is a spatial and price reorganization of global production, in addition to a technological transition.

Continue ReadingGreening in the Wrong Places: Geography, Policy Distortions, and the Hidden Costs of Misallocated Green Investment

The Automotive Transition on the Road to Decarbonization

The road to decarbonizing the planet runs through the energy transition, which includes the shift from fossil-fueled cars to renewable energy vehicles. This automotive transition is unfolding as a true revolution in the industry. The evolution toward electric and hybrid vehicles has come in tandem with the ascent of Chinese producers. In the current context of geopolitical and technological rivalries, the automotive transition has been marked by an intense trade war, with implications for the trajectory of decarbonization.

Continue ReadingThe Automotive Transition on the Road to Decarbonization

A Tale of Two Technology Wars: Semiconductors and Clean Energy

The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to and refinement of critical raw materials (CRM), which are key upstream components of the corresponding value chains, encompassing mineral-rich emerging markets and developing economies. The way in which the U.S. and the European Union approach the goal of self-sufficiency, as well as access to and refinement of CRMs, will make a big difference to their stakes in the technology wars.

Continue ReadingA Tale of Two Technology Wars: Semiconductors and Clean Energy