What’s Ailing Brazil?
Project Syndicate .. After decades of rapid economic growth and per capita income gains, Brazil is struggling. According to the International Monetary Fund, the country’s GDP is poised to contract by more than 7%…
Has the Global Trade-Development Link Peaked?
Trade has been a key driver of global growth, income convergence, and poverty reduction. Both developing countries and emerging market economies have benefited from opportunities to transfer technology from…
Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves
After a exponential rise in foreign exchange reserves accumulation by emerging markets from 2000 onwards, the tide seems to have turned south since mid-2014. Changes in capital flows and commodity prices have been major factors behind the inflection, with the new direction expected to remain, given the context of the global economy going forward. Although it is too early to gauge whether the on-going relative unwinding of such reserves defenses will lead to vulnerability in specific emerging markets, the payoff from strengthening domestic policies has broadly increased.
Wilson Center – Brazil’s Challenging 2016 Outlook
Webcast Recap Watch the full video here The debilitating political and economic crisis that engulfed Brazil in 2015 is bound to continue in the New Year regardless of…
Os prós e contras da CPMF, aposta do governo contra o deficit em 2016
Os prós e contras da CPMF, aposta do governo contra o deficit em 2016 Mariana Schreiber - BBC Brasil em Brasília 4 janeiro 2016 Direito de imagemABRImage captionVolta do imposto é impopular…
Fla-Flu político impede avanços na economia, diz diretor do FMI
Fla-Flu político impede avanços na economia, diz diretor do FMI MARCELO NINIO DE WASHINGTON Folha de São Paulo A nomeação de Nelson Barbosa para o lugar de Joaquim Levy…
Middle-income growth traps
This paper studies the existence of middle-income growth traps in a two-period overlapping generations model of economic growth with two types of labor and endogenous occupational choices. It also distinguishes between “basic” and “advanced” infrastructure, with the latter promoting design activities, and accounts for a knowledge network externality associated with product diversification. Multiple steady-state equilibria may emerge, one of them taking the form of a low-growth trap characterized by low productivity growth and a misallocation of talent—defined as a relatively low share of high-ability workers in design activities. Improved access to advanced infrastructure may help to escape from that trap. The implications of other public policies, including the protection of property rights and labor market reforms, are also discussed.
Financial Times – Currency depreciation is silver lining of Brazil’s recession
Financial Times, December 9, 2015 DECEMBER 9, 2015 by: Otaviano Canuto and Cornelius Fleischhaker beyondbrics Brazil is undergoing its most severe recession in decades, with GDP expected to contract more…
IMF rule change keeps Ukraine support; Russia complains
REUTERS December 8, 2015 IMF rule change keeps Ukraine support; Russia complains WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund will change its lending rules to allow it to keep supporting…
A New Day in Colombia
Given Colombia’s recent economic success during years of war, what it could achieve in years of peace? Colombia’s inherited reputation for cocaine, drug-trafficking and conflict may not be entirely…
ACCENTURE – Connections with leading thinkers – Otaviano Canuto
Armen Ovanessoff and Eduardo Plastino of the Accenture Institute for High Performance interview Otaviano Canuto as part of a research project on collaborative innovation. As part of the Accenture Institute…
Middle Income Growth Traps
This paper studies the existence of middle-income growth traps in a two-period overlapping generations model of economic growth with two types of labor and endogenous occupational choices. It also distinguishes between “basic” and “advanced” infrastructure, with the latter promoting design activities, and accounts for a knowledge network externality associated with product diversification. Multiple steady-state equilibria may emerge, one of them taking the form of a low-growth trap characterized by low productivity growth and a misallocation of talent—defined as a relatively low share of high-ability workers in design activities. Improved access to advanced infrastructure may help to escape from that trap. The implications of other public policies, including the protection of property rights and labor market reforms, are also discussed.
Trade Facilitation: Diplomacy May Be Catching Up
In September 2003, one of us was among the delegations of trade representatives from around the world that gathered in Cancun, Mexico, for one of the first Doha rounds…
IMF’s yuan inclusion signals less risk taking in China
Reuters BUSINESS NEWS NOVEMBER 29, 2015 IMF's yuan inclusion signals less risk taking in China Pete Sweeney, Krista Hughes SHANGHAI/NEW YORK (Reuters) - When the International Monetary Fund agrees on Monday to…
Shadow Banking in China: A Morphing Target
China’s shadow banking system thrived in the years after the global financial crisis, until reined in by regulators since 2013. Nevertheless, new forms of shadow banking are emerging.
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