Em lugar de regras e “prevalência da lei”, o manejo bilateral pelos EUA de sua condição de mercado super-forte (24% do PIB global) mais se assemelha a uma luta na selva onde os mais fortes sobrepujam como querem os mais fracos. Em tal contexto, a confiança em negociações é menor, assim como a disposição de buscar integração por parte dos menores.
Chinese FDI in LatAm has grown strongly, expanding from almost nothing in 2005 to an estimated US$110 billion or more in 2018, amid a shift away from simply pumping resources into infrastructure, governments and state firms, Brazilian economist Otaviano Canuto wrote in an article for the Americas Quarterly.
Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have two financing windows, with different terms, dedicated to low- and middle-income countries. Countries are presumed to cross those windows as their income per capita rises, with middle-income countries (MICs) eventually “graduating” to a non-client status once they reach some criteria. However, due to what may be called “middle-income traps”, such progression toward graduation has been limited to a small number of countries. In this paper, we suggest areas where the support by MDBs would yield highest results toward “graduation” of MICs. Item 1 reviews the criteria that have been used to justify graduation, whereas item 2 approaches two ways by which the possibility of “middle-income traps” impeding such graduation has been discussed in the literature. Finally, item 3 proposes an interface between MDBs’ support to MICs and the policy agenda to overcome middle-income traps.
VEJA 18 maio 2019 Previsões para o PIB em 2019 pioram, enquanto resta ao governo pouco a fazer para reverter o mau humor de um país à espera da…
Capital Finance International (Spring, 2019) China’s economic growth has been sliding since 2011, while its economic structure has gradually rebalanced toward lower dependence on investments and current-account surpluses. Steadiness…
Poder 360, 12 de maio de 2019 OTAVIANO CANUTO De 2003 a 2014, nível de pobreza teve queda. Mas parte da melhora acabou sendo desfeita. Conjuntura macroeconômica é o…
Throughout my last 15 years working in multilateral institutions, many times around the world I was asked to speak about the success of poverty reduction in Brazil during the…
Entrevista para Panorama Mercantil, 6 de maio de 2019 Professor, qual a importância de instituições como o Fundo Monetário Internacional para a economia global? O FMI foi estabelecido para preservar a…
Link to video here Council of the Americas, Americas Quarterly, and the National Endowment for Democracy held a deep-dive discussion on China’s new agenda for engagement in the Americas. This…
This note outlines two different ways in which the concept has been approached since its first use 12 years ago by Gill and Kharas (2007). One has been empirical, where search is made to identify – or deny - breaks or turning points in time-series data exhibiting “growth traps” for middle-income economies. The other one, closer to the way it was originally suggested, refers to the need of policy and institutional change for a country to keep climbing the income ladder after a transition from low levels. Traps are seen as shortcomings resulting from the absence of any of those policy and institutional changes considered key to gearing up the transition from middle- to upper-income levels.
First appeared at Policy Center for the New South, Seeking Alpha, and Maven Economonitor Next week, the 2019 Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World…
Publicado em Poder 360, 05 abril 2019 Na próxima semana ocorrerá o Encontro de Primavera do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) e do Banco Mundial, em Washington, neste 750 ano desde…
Em seus 75 anos de história, as instituições nascidas em Bretton Woods, muitas vezes referidas como irmãs gêmeas de Bretton Woods, passaram por adaptação e transformação para responder à evolução da economia global e aos desafios por esta colocada. Mais recentemente, três mudanças na ordem internacional trouxeram um novo conjunto de desafios: o surgimento de novos polos geoeconômicos; a predominância de políticas nacionalistas sobre o multilateralismo; e a fragmentação do sistema de instituições plurinacionais.
In their 75 years of existence, the twin institutions born at the Bretton Woods Conference have undergone adaptation and transformation in response to the evolution of the world economy and the challenges it has posed to them. They will have to mutate and adapt to operate in a context of institutional fragmentation and possible arm-breaks between shareholders/members to continue fulfilling their missions.
Bloomberg Bloomberg 28 de março de 2019 Por Rachel Gamarski, Vinícius Andrade e David Biller. Por anos, os brasileiros ouviram que a recuperação econômica apareceria tão logo a recessão chegasse ao fim e as…