The Hormuz Shock and South America’s Mineral Reckoning

The global economic shock triggered by the February 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused uneven effects on South America’s mineral economies. The disruption drove Brent Crude sharply higher and created a dual-edged outcome: stronger export revenues for oil and mineral producers, but much higher costs for imported energy, fertilizers, chemicals, and machinery. The balance varies by country, with Brazil facing especially acute fertilizer risks, Chile and Peru exposed to higher mining costs, and oil exporters such as Guyana and Colombia benefiting more directly. This paper argues that the crisis may also weaken global demand through stagflationary effects, limiting the commodity windfall. Long-term gains will depend on policy responses such as stabilization funds, supply diversification, strategic reserves, and greater value addition.

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