The global trend towards increasing globalization since the 1990s seems to have had two different distributional consequences: income inequality between countries has declined, while economic inequality within countries has increased. However, technological progress has made the biggest contribution to rising income inequality over the past two decades. Domestic policies – fiscal policies, social protection - are the locus where inequality is to be tackled.
First appeared at Policy Center for the New South, Seeking Alpha, and Maven Economonitor Next week, the 2019 Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World…
The possibility of mutually damaging financial volatility in the US and China may limit the extent of 'currency bullying' being used as a proxy in the countries' trade war. Nonetheless, rhetoric from Washington is likely to remain clamorous as the US trade and current account deficits rise and global imbalances worsen.
Dollar strengthening and political uncertainty impair emerging markets
Global current account imbalances on the rise will likely lead to "currency bullying"
3 July 2018 - Otaviano Canuto How innovation can flow from globalisation il issue of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook included a chapter on how globalisation has…
Argentina and Turkey combine balance-of-payments fragility and exposure to dollar appreciation
Shrinking the Fed's large balance sheet THU, MAY 17, 2018 - 5:50 AM OTAVIANO CANUTO Washington AT its meeting in March 2018 the US Federal Reserve raised the target range…
08 May 2018 - Otaviano Canuto The April issue of the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook (WEO)” included a chapter on how globalization has helped knowledge from technology leaders spread…
19 April 2018 - Otaviano Canuto Manufacturing expansion has been a vehicle for job creation, productivity increases, and growth in non-advanced economies since the second half of the last…
One needs to go beyond monetary policy dynamics to gauge the ultimate impact of the Fed’s balance sheet tapering. After all, it will all depend on what non-banking sectors want to do with “normalized” monetary conditions.
Current technological developments in manufacturing are likely to lead to a partial reversal of the wave of fragmentation and global value chains that was at the core of the rise of North-South trade from 1990 onward. At the same time, China – the main hub of the global-growth-cum-structural-change of that period – may attempt to extend the previous wave through its One Belt, One Road initiative.
After a strong rising tide starting in the 1990s, financial globalisation seems to have reached a plateau since the global financial crisis. However, that apparent stability has taken place along a deep reshaping of cross-border financial flows, featuring de-banking and an increasing weight of non-banking financial cross-border transactions. Sources of potential instability and long-term funding challenges have morphed accordingly
15 July 2017 - Otaviano Canuto, Aleksandra Liaplina The world economy – and emerging market and developing economies in particular – display a gap between their infrastructure needs and the…
