Emerging markets and the perfect storm (videos)
(A) OECD Economics Department Webinar: Policy Challenges for Emerging Market Economies (B) A Perfect Storm for the Global Economy? (C) Otaviano Canuto discusses the May Day marches in Latin America
(A) OECD Economics Department Webinar: Policy Challenges for Emerging Market Economies (B) A Perfect Storm for the Global Economy? (C) Otaviano Canuto discusses the May Day marches in Latin America
One can expect slower globalization (“slowbalization”) and a greater degree of regionalization. The term “slowbalization”—slowing growth in cross-border flows—can indeed be applied to the trends for goods, capital, and people after the global financial crisis rather than deglobalization—or outright declines in cross-border flows and stocks. The increases in digital cross-border activity also strengthen the concept of "newbalization": the nature and scope of globalization is evolving in the coming years as flows may continue to slow in tangible areas, like the trade of goods, while speeding up in intangible areas, including trade in services and cross-border data flows. On the other hand, “the death of globalization was an exaggerated announcement”.
Pode-se esperar uma globalização mais lenta (“slowbalization”) e com maior grau de regionalização. Até porque haverá um ônus para aqueles que buscarem uma demarcação exagerada do que é “estratégico"
The world food price index collected for the last 60 years by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) hit its highest record in March, declining gently in April. Pandemic, war and death in Ukraine, and droughts in the last 2 years… Such a combination looks apocalyptical. Now it is adding global hunger risks, because of the food price crisis. The fiscal fragility inherited from the pandemic limits public programs to deal with issues in many developing countries.
A combinação de praga da pandemia, guerra na Ucrânia e secas nos últimos dois anos parece ter saído da Bíblia. Agora, essa combinação está possivelmente incorporando a fome, com a crise de preços de alimentos, em parte do mundo. O índice de preços mundiais de alimentos, coletado há 60 anos pela Organização das Nações Unidas para a Alimentação e a Agricultura (FAO, em inglês), atingiu seu recorde em março, declinando suavemente em abril. Ninguém pode afirmar estar ileso em relação ao choque de preços de alimentos. Particularmente no caso das economias mais pobres, para as quais a parcela dos alimentos na cesta de consumo é significativa.
1. Podcast O Assunto: Associada ao aumento de preços com a recuperação da atividade pós-pandemia, a inflação se consolidou como fenômeno global. E leva bancos centrais a decidir por apertos monetários, colocando recessão no horizonte. Dados divulgados nesta quarta-feira nos EUA mostram que a taxa acumulada em 12 meses chegou a 8,3% em abril, perto do maior patamar desde 1981. 2, Canal MyNews: No Cruzando Fronteiras desta sexta (13), Jamil Chade recebe o economista Otaviano Canuto, pesquisador do Policy Center for the New South. Na pauta, o impacto da guerra da Ucrânia nos preços dos alimentos.
Commodity prices stabilized in April. However, the previous commodity price shock, intensifying trends that have been present since mid-2020, have already led to significantly higher price levels in 2022. The new jumps made the increase in energy prices in the last two years the biggest in the last fifty years, since the oil shock in 1973. The war in Ukraine and the shock of energy commodity prices have not been favorable to the energy transition, as seen in the race for coal.
O choque de preços de commodities, intensificando tendências presentes desde meados de 2020, já as levaram a patamares de preços significativamente mais altos em 2022, devendo permanecer por lá no médio prazo. As perspectivas para os mercados de commodities dependerão, claro, da duração da guerra na Ucrânia, das sanções sobre a Rússia e da gravidade das interrupções nos fluxos de commodities. Para que a combinação de praga pandêmica, guerra e mortes não assuma proporções bíblicas, devemos evitar que a elas se junte uma mudança climática suscitada por mais atraso na transição energética.
Last March, a proposal of dollarizing Argentina’s economy arrived at its Congress. We summarize here the potential consequences of such a route in case the bill succeeds in getting approval. First, we point out the broad implications of dollarizing an economy. Then, we set out some cases of Latin American experiences with dollarization. Finally, we address the case of Argentina. The main potential benefit of dollarization would be elimination of domestic inflation, but at a very high cost. Argentina’s fiscal imbalances will not be eliminated by dollarization. Even though dollarization would prevent the printing of money, it imposes no constraints on government spending and borrowing. The only result is that monetary policy ceases to be available as an option, leaving almost no response capacity in case of external shocks. Moreover, dollarization creates the possibility of being exposed to pro-cyclical monetary policies unrelated to domestic necessities. It also eliminates seigniorage benefits. On top of more general features of dollarization and case studies, implementing dollarization now in Argentina would have to face hard-to-overcome challenges. Proposing dollarization under current conditions would require a selective default of domestic currency liabilities, a brutal devaluation, and/or a unilateral conversion of public deposits.
The "World Economic Outlook" report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 19 depicted a worsening in the global economic scenario for 2022: lower economic growth and higher inflation than the January projections. As the Director-General Kristalina Georgieva said in the previous week, the war in Ukraine represented a "substantial setback" for the global economic recovery. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) face a common set of external shocks: rising energy and food prices; tightening in global financial conditions caused by the prospect of sharper interest rate hikes and anticipation of "quantitative tightening"; and return of restrictions on mobility in China, on account of the Covid zero policy, leading to slumping in growth and weakening one of the primary growth drivers for the other EMDE. However, the impacts of those common shocks on EMDE have been heterogeneous.
FMI aponta crescimento econômico mais baixo e inflação mais alta para 2022. As economias emergentes e em desenvolvimento enfrentam um conjunto de choques externos em comum. Contudo, os impactos dos choques em comum estão sendo heterogêneos.
The Covid-19 crisis has led to major disruptions in Global Value Chains. In this episode, Otaviano Canuto answers questions about the impact on the design of post-covid industrial policies and underlines the components that should be considered by policymakers to ensure a quick and sound economic recovery along with a regional integration that plays a role in this new industrial organization scheme.
The heavy financial sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine sparked speculations that the weaponization of access to reserves in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen would spark a division in the international monetary order. There has been a reduction in the degree of "dollar dominance” with the dollar's share of central bank reserves falling since the beginning of the century. The relative dominance of the dollar appears to be declining but at a very gradual pace.
As pesadas sanções financeiras sobre a Rússia depois da invasão da Ucrânia suscitaram especulações de que o uso armado do acesso a reservas em dólares, euros, libras e ienes iria suscitar uma divisão na ordem monetária internacional. A dominância relativa do dólar parece declinante, mas em ritmo muito gradual.
1. OTAVIANO CANUTO Global Impacts of War in Ukraine - a 3-min video summarizes the short-term impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the global economy 2. Podcast - War in Ukraine and Sanctions against Russia : an endless boxing match? 3. Commodity Markets Outlook, Urbanization & Commodity Demand In partnership with the World Bank