Conjunto de instituições e mecanismos proporcionam às economias camadas de defesa perante choques externos. Além de uma necessidade de aumento na capacidade total de empréstimos do FMI, cabe alargar e facilitar o acesso a suas linhas precaucionárias.
When countries face external financial shocks, they must rely on financial buffers to counter such shocks. The global financial safety net is the set of institutions and arrangements that provide lines of defense for economies against such shocks. From any individual country standpoint, there are three lines of defense in their external financial safety nets: international reserves, pooled resources (swap lines and plurilateral financing arrangements), and the International Monetary Fund. We argue here that there is a need to extend and facilitate access to the ultimate global financial safety net layer: the IMF. We illustrate that by pointing out how Morocco and Mexico have boosted their defensive power by having access to IMF precautionary lines of credit.
A recent IMF report estimated that half of the jobs impacted will be affected negatively, while the other half may see increases in productivity. The lesser impact on emerging and developing countries will tend to lead to fewer benefits in terms of increased productivity.
Um relatório do FMI destaca como o nível de preparação de um país para a IA será relevante no que diz respeito a maximizar os benefícios e lidar com os riscos de efeitos negativos da tecnologia
The Davos Forum is so identified with the expansion and strengthening of globalization in the decades in which it flourished, that it could not emerge unscathed from globalization’s partial retrenchment in recent times. Fears about deglobalization must have been predominant.
Ausência de autoridades demonstra que Fórum de Davos não saiu ileso da retração da globalização nos últimos tempos, escreve Otaviano Canuto.
Due to the stagnation of official development aid following the global financial crisis, and the challenges faced by African countries in mobilising domestic resources to finance their massive needs for infrastructure and socio-economic development, a re-accumulation of debt in the region began in 2011. To effectively tackle the massive challenges, it is imperative to contemplate a reconfiguration and expansion of existing debt relief programmes. Rather than viewing debt-related difficulties solely as matters of short-term liquidity, it is essential to acknowledge the underlying solvency problems that necessitate long-term remedies. A well-established sovereign bond market will enable African countries to mobilise extra financial resources for their increasing social and economic needs. The current context, marked by tightening financial conditions, especially for developing countries, has shown how favourable it would be to leverage a domestic and deep local-currency sovereign debt market. Unless Africa adopts an ambitious tax policy, enabling authorities to raise the due amount of tax, the funding issue will remain unresolved.
Crescimento, inflação e juros serão menores que em 2023.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by Xi Jinping, completed its tenth anniversary this year. It has entered a third phase. After the “peak” (2014-17) and “correction” (from 2018 onward) phases, the focus will now be on “smaller, smarter” projects, in coordination with the country’s clean energy industrial policies.
A Iniciativa da Nova Rota da Seda (ou Belt and Road Initiative, BRI), lançada por Xi Jinping, completou seu décimo aniversário este ano. Está neste momento em uma terceira fase.
Entidades internacionais estimam retorno a tendência de crescimento e inflação convergindo para metas de bancos centrais até 2025, escreve Otaviano Canuto
Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. However, a partial realignment seems to be underway, reflecting the more durable side of those recent shocks. This is probably leading to higher costs and prices on the margin, in the case of realignments done to overcome shocks of a geopolitical nature. The answer seems to be that global trade has been resilient, although it is undergoing some realignment.
Não há sinais de inversão na tendência longa de maior integração comercial global das últimas décadas, especialmente na Ásia. Contudo, há um realinhamento parcial, refletindo o lado mais durável dos choques mais recentes. Provavelmente com algum maior custo na margem, no caso de realinhamento para fins de contorno a choques de natureza geopolítica.
The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to and refinement of critical raw materials (CRM), which are key upstream components of the corresponding value chains, encompassing mineral-rich emerging markets and developing economies. The way in which the U.S. and the European Union approach the goal of self-sufficiency, as well as access to and refinement of CRMs, will make a big difference to their stakes in the technology wars.
A oferta e os preços de energia são os principais canais de transmissão econômica global da guerra entre Israel e Hamas. Os efeitos do conflito nos mercados globais de matérias-primas têm sido limitados até agora. Esse quadro dará lugar a mudanças acentuadas caso o conflito se agrave e se alastre. Para além do efeito devastador sobre vidas trazido por uma extensão e agravamento da guerra, não é o caso de se menosprezar os efeitos sobre pobres e a segurança alimentar e energética no planeta.