O futuro está na terra

A terra urbana, mais do que um recurso físico, representa o último foco de resistência contra a lógica desigualitária do capital. Nas cidades, onde se desenrolam os temas centrais da vida contemporânea, a terra pode ser o alicerce de um modelo de desenvolvimento social e ambientalmente mais equilibrado. A revolução digital oferece ferramentas para renovar a ocupação urbana, promovendo justiça e inclusão, mas é a vontade humana, orientando conscientemente essas lógicas, que evitará o mecanicismo impessoal do mercado. A gestão da terra urbana, fundamentada na intencionalidade coletiva, deve ser reconhecida como um ativo estratégico na construção de um futuro em que o progresso seja guiado por equidade, resiliência e responsabilidade social, com a dignidade humana e o meio ambiente no centro das decisões.

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Pathways for Reconciling New Industrial Policy and International Cooperation for Global Goods

The resurgence of Neo protectionism as a reality is creating a pressing need to establish New Industrial Policies (NIPs) capable of striking a balance between Global Value Chains (GVC) managers' quest for efficiency and policy makers' need for more increasing resilience or national security in a turmoiled geopolitical landscape. Furthermore, although NIPs might pursue legitimate non-economic objectives, they are often captured by vested interests, resulting in protectionist measures. These policies produce negative spillovers, jeopardizing other countries’ development perspectives. This policy brief posits that countries embracing industrial policies with trade diversion components must allocate efforts to implement additional trade liberalization in sectors where the affected exporting countries have comparative advantages as compensation for the negative spillovers their unilateral domestic policies impose on third countries. This highlights the need to establish a structured system that penalizes protectionist countries for exceeding predetermined limits on subsidies and distortive measures. This policy brief also recommends that advanced economies implementing industrial policies with high amounts of embodied subsidies contribute to an international fund dedicated to financing developing economies' access to new green technologies. This approach acknowledges the undeniable push towards aggressive industrial policies, yet simultaneously strives to establish a framework to temper this emerging trend. This mechanism aligns with the principles of economic fairness and encourages nations to adopt less distortive behaviors in their pursuit of economic security or resilience to shocks.

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Eleições nos EUA trarão consequências econômicas para o país e o mundo

Harris e Trump têm propostas diferenciadas quanto a tarifas, tributos, energia e imigração. Se você acredita na mudança climática causada por emissões de carbono e deseja uma transição para energia renovável no mundo, bem como se acredita que o comércio entre os países não é um jogo de “perde-ganha”, já sabe por quem torcerá.

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The U.S. Elections Will Have Worldwide Economic Consequences

Kamala and Trump have different proposals regarding tariffs, taxes, energy and immigration. If you believe that the ongoing global warming is due to carbon emissions and desire a transition to renewable energy worldwide, and if you believe that trade between countries is not a “zero-sum game”, you already know who you will be rooting for.

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The Rich World’s Immigration Conundrum

Fourteen high-income countries have shown how immigration can help offset declining fertility rates and maintain population levels. But with anti-immigrant sentiment on the rise, politicians in these countries face a difficult choice: welcoming foreigners or facing the economic challenges brought about by an aging population.

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The Third Plenum and China’s Economic Growth Challenges

• China's economy grew 4.7% in Q2, with a target set at 5% for 2024. • Challenges include real estate sector exhaustion, local government debt, domestic demand, and external resistance to exports. • The Third Plenum highlights reforms for housing, fiscal policy, and addressing challenges, but lacks focus on stimulating consumption.

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Read more about the article Ascensão da direita global ameaça o cumprimento de metas climáticas
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Ascensão da direita global ameaça o cumprimento de metas climáticas

A evidência de que os danos da mudança climática já chegaram e vão aumentar é insofismável. O cenário só não será cada vez pior se conseguirmos reduzir as emissões de carbono, o que dependerá de países estabelecerem e cumprirem NDCs condizentes. A evolução recente da política em países com peso nessa trajetória não parece alvissareira. Resta-nos torcer para que essa evolução não traga consequências maiores para nossa trajetória na “estrada da descarbonização”.

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Read more about the article Politics and Climate Change
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Politics and Climate Change

The evidence that the damage from climate change has already arrived and will increase is irrefutable. The situation will only get worse if the world fails to reduce carbon emissions—which will depend on countries establishing and fulfilling appropriate NDCs. Recent political developments in countries with significant influence on this trajectory do not seem promising. We can only hope that this evolution does not bring greater consequences for the ‘road to decarbonization’.

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(Videos) Global Economy + Digital Currencies

The global economy is expected to stabilize for the first time in three years, but more weakly than in previous recoveries, according to a new report from the World Bank. Inflation, higher interest rates, as well as trade and geopolitical tensions could make this decade more sluggish than the last one ------------- Explore the evolution, impact, and future trends of digital currencies with our Senior Fellow, Mr. Otaviano Canuto. In this insightful video, he sheds light on how digital currencies are transforming global markets and what to expect in the coming years.

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Envelhecimento populacional traz desafios e oportunidades

O envelhecimento populacional é um traço de nossa época. Por um lado, as pessoas estão vivendo por mais tempo, com a queda em taxas de mortalidade nas várias faixas etárias desde o século passado. Expectativas de vida subiram na maior parte do planeta. Na outra ponta da dinâmica demográfica, taxas de fecundidade – número de filhos por mulher – também desabaram nas últimas décadas. A partir de certo ponto tal queda na fecundidade tende a levar a um eventual declínio na população. O “bônus demográfico” brasileiro teve início nos anos 70, quando se iniciou um período de aumento das proporções da população em idade ativa e da população ocupada na população total. A janela demográfica das últimas décadas foi subutilizada, a julgar pela evolução da produtividade dos trabalhadores e da economia como um todo no período.

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Financializing Commodity Markets: Consequences, Advantages and African Case Study

Africa has a wealth of natural resources, including minerals, agriculture, and energy commodities, which offers an opportunity to harness commodities’ financialization in the continent, a concept that has gained global attention, with debates surrounding its potential benefits and drawbacks. Although the financialization of commodities has been studied in various contexts, including in African countries, challenges such as liquidity constraints and market readiness have emerged as critical impediments to its widespread adoption. This paper examines the existing literature to clarify the positive and negative aspects of commodity financialization, drawing on global examples and specific cases within Africa. By examining best practices and lessons learned, the paper offers guidance on how African countries can navigate the complexities of preparing for and embracing commodity financialization to unlock its potential benefits while mitigating associated risks.

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Taxas de juros nos EUA mais altas por mais tempo

O FOMC não está atualmente inclinado a aumentar taxas, mas aguarda dados que permitam maior confiança antes de considerar cortes. Após os dados decepcionantes da inflação no primeiro trimestre, é provável que as taxas básicas permaneçam em seu nível atual por um período mais longo que o que se esperava.

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The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture: Toward a System that Delivers for the South

The Policy Center for the New South and the Atlantic Council Africa Center have jointly released a report on “The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture: Toward a System that Delivers for the South,” by Otaviano Canuto, Hafez Ghanem, Youssef El Jai, and Stéphane Le Bouder. This report issues specific and urgent calls for reform, including more representative global governance, increasing the World Bank’s operational and financial capacity, prioritizing programs that would integrate Africa into the global economy, connecting the continent’s critical infrastructure and trade routes, and increasing participation and collaboration with bilateral public and private lenders and investors, such as China, sovereign wealth funds, and multinationals. 2024 marks eighty years of the Bretton Woods system. It is crucial to implement extensive reforms and substantial policies to support African nations’ efforts and maximize their chances to unleash their immense economic potential. These recommendations presented during the 2024 IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings reflect the urgency of both operational and more inclusive reforms for the African continent.

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China’s Economic Growth on Target Despite Challenges

IMF projects China's economic growth at 4.6% and 4.1% for this year and next. China's official target is 5%. Six challenges to China's economic growth include the real estate sector, local government debt, domestic demand, external resistance to China's exports, change in foreign investor sentiment, and demographic decline. Despite challenges, China's economic growth remained steady in Q1 2024, with exports and manufacturing investment compensating for the drag from the property sector.

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