The fiasco of Mr. Trump’s emergency tariffs

The IEEPA tariff journey did not end well. It turned out to be an illegal tax based on flawed economic principles, was reluctantly revoked under belated legal pressure, and compensated those who were said to be the object of "punishment."  The insistence on seeking punishment through other legal means risks extending the fiasco, keeping uncertainty high along the way.

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O fiasco das tarifas de emergência de Trump

A jornada das tarifas da Ieepa foi o exemplo perfeito do fiasco da política do governo Trump. Acabou sendo um imposto ilegal baseado em princípios econômicos equivocados, revogado a contragosto sob pressão legal tardia e ressarcindo quem foi dito ser o objeto de “punição”. A insistência em buscar a punição por outras vias legais arrisca estender o fiasco, mantendo a incerteza lá em cima.

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The Multiple Frontlines of the U.S.-China Technological Rivalry

The U.S.–China technological rivalry has become a central axis of global economic and geopolitical competition. While the United States continues to lead in frontier innovation—most notably in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI)—China has consolidated strengths in large-scale implementation, manufacturing capacity, and control over critical segments of global supply chains. These advantages are especially visible in clean energy technologies and in the processing and refinement of critical minerals and rare earths. The rivalry now unfolds across multiple frontlines, extending beyond innovation itself to encompass infrastructure, energy availability, and technology deployment across the New South. Its outcome will depend less on breakthrough inventions alone than on each country’s capacity to integrate technology, industrial policy, and energy systems into cohesive national strategies.

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The Silent Majority of the New South: Small States, Davos 2026, and the Last Line of International Law

This article examines the quiet but profound implications of the erosion of U.S.-led hegemony for small and vulnerable states of the New South. While the post-1945 international order was never egalitarian, it offered predictability: power was organized through law, and sovereignty for weaker states rested less on justice than on procedural stability. Davos 2026 marked a turning point in the public acknowledgment of that system’s unraveling. Statements by leading Western figures revealed not a revolt against American power, but a growing recognition that the United States is increasingly retreating from the obligations that once distinguished hegemony from dominance. As rules give way to discretion, and institutions to transactional bargaining, the capacity of states to navigate global disorder is becoming sharply unequal. The article argues that this shift is existential for small states—particularly in the Middle East and North Africa—whose sovereignty depends almost entirely on international law and multilateral institutions. Unlike middle powers, they lack buffers, leverage, and visibility; their vulnerability rarely translates into voice. Climate change, debt distress, and security dependence deepen this asymmetry, making legal obligation—not power—their primary shield. Far from idealism, international law functions for these states as the infrastructure of survival. The weakening or bypassing of multilateral rules thus constitutes a systemic stress test: not of global morality, but of global stability. If the last line of international law collapses, the resulting order will not be more realistic—it will be more coercive, exclusionary, and ultimately less durable.

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Quão sustentável é o “K” econômico dos EUA?

Combinação de bolha de IA com desempenho inferior na parte de baixo da pirâmide é o cenário mais provável. Caso a demanda por mão de obra se acople ao crescimento geral, a inflação continuará persistente e os mercados de trabalho terão de se contrair no final do próximo ano, diz o articulista...

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The American Industrial Transformation: Beyond the Deindustrialization Myth

What the U.S. has lost in domestic manufacturing, it may have gained in global productive presence. Understanding the transformation of U.S. manufacturing requires an assessment of the revolutionary impact of technology. Tomorrow’s industrial jobs require completely different qualifications from yesterday’s, and even successful production reshoring wouldn't necessarily restore the industrial employment levels of previous decades. Some confusion about U.S. ‘deindustrialization’ also arises from how sectoral GDP is measured. A significant share of value added in industrial production, especially high-value activities, is classified as ‘services’. The deindustrialization narrative, and the political platform of ‘Make America Great Again’ by reindustrializing it, reflects an identification between the evolution of U.S. manufacturing during globalization and the unequal appropriation of economic gains by the top of the income pyramid. The real strategic question for the U.S. isn't how to compete with China in low value-added goods production, but how to maintain and expand its leadership in high-tech segments, design, innovation, and global value chain coordination.

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The global economy is on a two-way track

Global economic growth has been more resilient than expected, as the artificial intelligence-led growth seems to be compensating for the negative impacts of trade conflicts. Overstretched asset values and slowing jobs growth may be signaling that the balanced crossing of those two paths will be challenged.

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A economia global está caminhando em estrada dupla

Relatório da OCDE mostra uma economia global dividida entre o impulso da inteligência artificial e o peso da guerra tarifária dos EUA. Enquanto a IA sustenta investimentos e crescimento, tarifas e desaceleração do emprego projetam riscos à resiliência mundial, diz o articulista

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The U.S. Tariff Saga Hasn’t Reached Its Climax Yet

The Trump tariff saga hasn't reached its climax yet, but a shift in import sources is evident. Regarding the trade balance, everything will depend on the continuation of the boom driven by high-tech investment. The harmful effects of tariffs on the rest of the economy will take time to unfold.

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