Read more about the article From Bretton Woods to Braided Path: Navigating MDB Dynamics Amid Global Shifts

From Bretton Woods to Braided Path: Navigating MDB Dynamics Amid Global Shifts

Within an ever-evolving system of multilateral development banks (MDB) currently reshaped by four structural geo-economic trends, the emergence of new MDBs like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) carries great geopolitical significance. Yet the new MDBs, attuned to institutional and operational realities, have not upended the MDB system. Their relationship with long-established MDBs such as the World Bank currently resembles not a fork in the road, but a braided path–marked by both convergence and divergence, cooperation and manageable competition.

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Read more about the article Placas Tectônicas Monetárias em Movimento

Placas Tectônicas Monetárias em Movimento

Caráter errático e incerto da política econômica de Trump tendem a disparar novos movimentos tectônicos entre sistemas monetários na economia global. Articulista afirma que o renminbi não se constitui, nesse momento, em uma alternativa plena como moeda de reserva, mas o euro pode vir a ser se tomar medidas, como tornar o mercado de capitais da Zona do Euro menos fragmentado e ineficiente

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Read more about the article BRICS em tempos de reacomodação tectônica

BRICS em tempos de reacomodação tectônica

Este artigo avalia o desempenho das economias originais do BRICS relativamente às projeções de crescimento e apreciação cambial apresentadas nos artigos que lançaram o acrônimo antes de o agrupamento se tornar uma realidade diplomática, política e econômica. Na sequência, discutimos a agenda BRICS no atual contexto geopolítico desafiador, no qual a fragmentação econômica tende a elevar custos para a economia mundial e apresenta obstáculos consideráveis para economias emergentes e em desenvolvimento.

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Read more about the article Growth Implications of a Fractured Trading System

Growth Implications of a Fractured Trading System

- The costs are greater the deeper the trade fragmentation. - Reduced knowledge diffusion due to technological decoupling is a powerful negative amplifier of the trade channel. - Emerging markets and low-income countries are most at risk from trade and technology fragmentation. - Transition costs can be considerable, in some cases even exceeding the final trading impact. - The estimates provided are not the upper bound. The G20 might not address issues of national security directly, but there's much they can do, especially regarding the trade-offs between resilience and efficiency, designing policies to avoid resorting to the least discretionary breadth.

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Read more about the article The Challenge of Fostering Innovation and Accelerating Economic Growth in Brazil

The Challenge of Fostering Innovation and Accelerating Economic Growth in Brazil

This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980snotably the globalization of firms and industriescombined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupted the path of industrial and technological development that Brazil had pursued since the 1930s. In essence, growth strategies based on the scale of the domestic market ceased to be effective. The innovation and economic challenges the country now faces cannot be addressed without a clear understanding of these processes. The analysis carries important policy implications, centered on the need for less protectionism and greater internationalization of firms. Reversing the inward-looking orientation of the Brazilian industry is a key objective for any policy aiming to stimulate increased business R&D and innovation.

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Read more about the article Os minerais da África vão moldar o futuro do poder mundial

Os minerais da África vão moldar o futuro do poder mundial

À medida que a rivalidade entre EUA e China se intensifica, ambas as potências cortejam países africanos ricos em minerais na tentativa de garantir matérias-primas essenciais. Transformar a vasta riqueza de recursos naturais da África em desenvolvimento duradouro exige uma estratégia baseada em infraestrutura que gere valor a longo prazo para as comunidades locais.

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Read more about the article Africa’s Minerals Will Shape the Future of Global Power

Africa’s Minerals Will Shape the Future of Global Power

As the US-China rivalry intensifies, both powers are courting mineral-rich African countries in an effort to secure critical raw materials. Translating Africa's vast natural-resource wealth into lasting development requires an infrastructure-led strategy that delivers long-term value for local communities.

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Read more about the article The Spring of Tariff Regret

The Spring of Tariff Regret

The IMF has reviewed the global growth downward, highlighting the impacts of Trump's tariff war and warning about financial and economic risks. Although the negative effects of tariffs have already been “somewhat priced in,” according to Tobias Adrian (IMF), equity and bond prices could “certainly” fall further if negotiations fail. So, it’s either successful negotiations or further stress and downgrades.

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Read more about the article A primavera do arrependimento tarifário

A primavera do arrependimento tarifário

O FMI revisou o crescimento global para baixo, destacando os impactos da guerra tarifária de Trump e alertando sobre riscos financeiros e econômicos. Embora os efeitos negativos das tarifas já tenham sido "de certa forma precificados", segundo Tobias Adrian (FMI), os preços das ações e títulos podem "certamente" cair ainda mais se as negociações fracassarem. Portanto, ou negociações bem-sucedidas ou mais estresse e rebaixamentos.

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Read more about the article How to Make Carbon Pricing Work for Africa

How to Make Carbon Pricing Work for Africa

As the world prepares for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, African countries have an opportunity to advocate for equitable carbon-pricing mechanisms that align climate action with sustainable development. While cutting emissions is important, so, too, is ensuring fairness and equity for the communities most vulnerable to climate change.

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Read more about the article Moedas locais dos BRICS e a desdolarização

Moedas locais dos BRICS e a desdolarização

O uso crescente de moedas locais em pagamentos externos, nos BRICS ou fora deles, será parte do que já chamamos de “desdolarização devagar e limitada”. Como parcela das reservas globais, o dólar americano caiu de um pouco acima de 70% em 2000 para um pouco abaixo de 60% em 2022. Contudo, enquanto uma moeda local não for plenamente conversível, permanecendo sujeita a regulações restringindo a liquidez e a disponibilidade de ativos - como permanece sendo o renminbi - não cumprirá a função de reserva externa de valor para o grosso dos agentes na economia global.

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Read more about the article Capital, Labor, and Land in the Digital Transition

Capital, Labor, and Land in the Digital Transition

The digital revolution is bringing about a dramatic shift in power, from labor to capital. We assess what the impact of this transformation might be on land as a factor of production. The digital revolution is not happening in a historical vacuum. It unfolds within a framework of confrontation or collusion between market forces and government forces. Depending on the market power that companies can exercise, the digital transition will have different impacts on income distributions between capital, labor, and land, as well as on income distribution within capital itself. This digital transition is advancing during a period of history marked by the worsening of four major crises, the effects of which are interconnected: international, environmental, democratic, and distributive. Urban land management, based on collective purpose, must be recognized as a strategic asset in building a future in which progress is guided by equity, resilience, and social responsibility, with human dignity and the environment at the center of decisions.

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Read more about the article The Automotive Transition on the Road to Decarbonization

The Automotive Transition on the Road to Decarbonization

The road to decarbonizing the planet runs through the energy transition, which includes the shift from fossil-fueled cars to renewable energy vehicles. This automotive transition is unfolding as a true revolution in the industry. The evolution toward electric and hybrid vehicles has come in tandem with the ascent of Chinese producers. In the current context of geopolitical and technological rivalries, the automotive transition has been marked by an intense trade war, with implications for the trajectory of decarbonization.

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Read more about the article Tem uma transição automotiva na estrada da descarbonização

Tem uma transição automotiva na estrada da descarbonização

A estrada rumo à descarbonização do planeta passa pela transição energética, a qual inclui a transição de automóveis movidos a energia fóssil para renovável. Esta transição está ocorrendo como uma verdadeira revolução na indústria automotiva. Adicionalmente, a transição automotiva já está sofrendo o impacto da rivalidade geopolítica entre Estados Unidos, Europa e a China. A transição automotiva está sendo um componente complexo e nada linear da transição energética.

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