What’s Ailing the Brazilian Economy?
Capital Finance International, Autumn 2016 Brazil’s GDP is poised to decline by close to 7% in 2015-2016. Per capita GDP in 2016 is likely to shrink by more than 10%…
A straightjacket to Help Brazil Fight Fiscal Obesity
Brazil’s GDP contraction since mid-2014 has multiple non-fiscal roots but it has morphed into an unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Dealing with the latter has become a precondition for full economic recovery and the Brazilian government has submitted to Congress a constitutional amendment bill mandating a public spending cap for the next 20 years. This piece considers how the Brazilian landscape evolved toward such a precipice and why additional reforms – particularly on pensions – will have to be implemented to make the spending cap feasible.
Brazil Needs an Honest Waste Loss
Brazil has been suffering from anemic productivity growth. This is a major challenge because in the long run, sustained productivity increases are necessary to underpin inclusive economic growth.
Brazil’s Way Out
Project Syndicate Now that impeached Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is out of office, the newly empowered administration of President Michel Temer must clean up the mess she left behind. Can…
China’s Spill-Overs on Latin America and the Caribbean
11 August 2016 - Otaviano Canuto The Chinese economy is rebalancing while softening its growth pace. China’s spillovers on the global economy have operated through trade, commodity prices, and…
LatAm in Focus: Otaviano Canuto on Fixing Brazil’s Economy
LatAm in Focus: Otaviano Canuto on Fixing Brazil's Economy Luisa Leme May 04, 2016 Productivity: that's the key word to fixing Brazil's economy. @ocanuto speaks to @luisaleme. Brazil needs to…
Brazil at the Crossroads
With the impeachment of President Dilma Roussseff being sent to the Senate on April 17, Brazil continues a period of turmoil that has lasted for more than a year…
How Brazil, the darling of the developing world, came undone
The Washington Post How Brazil, the darling of the developing world, came undone Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff was suspended from office on Thursday, May 12. (Dom Phillips, Nick Miroff,…
What’s Ailing Brazil?
Project Syndicate .. After decades of rapid economic growth and per capita income gains, Brazil is struggling. According to the International Monetary Fund, the country’s GDP is poised to contract by more than 7%…
Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves
After a exponential rise in foreign exchange reserves accumulation by emerging markets from 2000 onwards, the tide seems to have turned south since mid-2014. Changes in capital flows and commodity prices have been major factors behind the inflection, with the new direction expected to remain, given the context of the global economy going forward. Although it is too early to gauge whether the on-going relative unwinding of such reserves defenses will lead to vulnerability in specific emerging markets, the payoff from strengthening domestic policies has broadly increased.
Wilson Center – Brazil’s Challenging 2016 Outlook
Webcast Recap Watch the full video here The debilitating political and economic crisis that engulfed Brazil in 2015 is bound to continue in the New Year regardless of…
Financial Times – Currency depreciation is silver lining of Brazil’s recession
Financial Times, December 9, 2015 DECEMBER 9, 2015 by: Otaviano Canuto and Cornelius Fleischhaker beyondbrics Brazil is undergoing its most severe recession in decades, with GDP expected to contract more…
ACCENTURE – Connections with leading thinkers – Otaviano Canuto
Armen Ovanessoff and Eduardo Plastino of the Accenture Institute for High Performance interview Otaviano Canuto as part of a research project on collaborative innovation. As part of the Accenture Institute…
Trade Opening Could Be a Source of Growth for Brazil
Capital Finance International, Autumn 2015 International trade has undergone a radical transformation in the past decades as production processes have fragmented along cross-border value chains. The Brazilian economy has remained…
BRICS Apart as Oil Prices Plunge
Capital Finance International, spring 2015 The oil price plunge since last June has been deemed, overall, as a boon for the global economy. However, that depends on where one…