Addressing Africa’s Persistent Debt Problem

Due to the stagnation of official development aid following the global financial crisis, and the challenges faced by African countries in mobilising domestic resources to finance their massive needs for infrastructure and socio-economic development, a re-accumulation of debt in the region began in 2011. To effectively tackle the massive challenges, it is imperative to contemplate a reconfiguration and expansion of existing debt relief programmes. Rather than viewing debt-related difficulties solely as matters of short-term liquidity, it is essential to acknowledge the underlying solvency problems that necessitate long-term remedies. A well-established sovereign bond market will enable African countries to mobilise extra financial resources for their increasing social and economic needs. The current context, marked by tightening financial conditions, especially for developing countries, has shown how favourable it would be to leverage a domestic and deep local-currency sovereign debt market. Unless Africa adopts an ambitious tax policy, enabling authorities to raise the due amount of tax, the funding issue will remain unresolved.

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The Post-Pandemic Great Reset

The crisis recovery has been uneven, unequal, and incomplete, within and among countries. Additionally, we wonder about to what extent the pandemic has accelerated history by reinforcing some previous trends, leading the world to a “great reset”. Among the enduring consequences of the pandemic, four of them are here highlighted: digital transformation has been speeded up; globalization will be reshaped; higher public debt will be a legacy from the crisis; and some economic scarring from the pandemic in labor markets may be expected.

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Orderly Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Missing in Action! (And Likely To Remain So)

An orderly sovereign debt restructuring should place the debtor nation's public debt on a sustainable trajectory while minimizing procrastination and contagion. However, the experiences with the debt crisis of the 1980s, Russia 1998, Argentina 2001, and Greece 2010 indicate that orderly debt restructurings remain elusive, even with high-powered official intervention. When solvency problems are present, the chances of success increase if official money is lent at the risk-free rate, reflecting its low risk, and if private creditors receive an upfront haircut. The paper examines the obstacles, which include moral hazard, difficulty in distinguishing between solvency and liquidity crises, and the “political economy” resistance to upfront haircuts. Orderly sovereign debt restructurings are likely to remain elusive notwithstanding recent evidence that the official mindset may be changing.

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