External Debt Management in Africa: A Proposal for a ‘Debt Relief for Climate Initiative’

A decade of poor growth, increased poverty, and political instability followed the serious debt difficulties that emerged worldwide in the 1980s. There are concerns that the looming debt crisis could create similar challenges and result in even more severe consequences. However, the current economic climate differs in many ways from that of the 1980s, when international banks and Paris Club creditors held most of the external debt. Today, the profile of creditors is more diverse, and the mechanisms established by the G20 and multilateral development banks to address this new crisis are partly based on outdated approaches that are no longer effective in adapting to new realities. As a result, a more holistic and integrated approach is required to address the challenges of external debt faced by developing countries, particularly in Africa. Such an approach should take into account the issue of over-indebtedness while also addressing climate protection, the most pressing issue of the 21st century. A promising solution to tackling these challenges could be a new debt reduction initiative focused on climate action. This policy brief recommends a ‘Debt Relief for Climate Initiative’ that will link debt reduction with investments in climate adaptation and mitigation projects.

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Orderly Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Missing in Action! (And Likely To Remain So)

An orderly sovereign debt restructuring should place the debtor nation's public debt on a sustainable trajectory while minimizing procrastination and contagion. However, the experiences with the debt crisis of the 1980s, Russia 1998, Argentina 2001, and Greece 2010 indicate that orderly debt restructurings remain elusive, even with high-powered official intervention. When solvency problems are present, the chances of success increase if official money is lent at the risk-free rate, reflecting its low risk, and if private creditors receive an upfront haircut. The paper examines the obstacles, which include moral hazard, difficulty in distinguishing between solvency and liquidity crises, and the “political economy” resistance to upfront haircuts. Orderly sovereign debt restructurings are likely to remain elusive notwithstanding recent evidence that the official mindset may be changing.

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