BRICS em tempos de reacomodação tectônica

Este artigo avalia o desempenho das economias originais do BRICS relativamente às projeções de crescimento e apreciação cambial apresentadas nos artigos que lançaram o acrônimo antes de o agrupamento se tornar uma realidade diplomática, política e econômica. Na sequência, discutimos a agenda BRICS no atual contexto geopolítico desafiador, no qual a fragmentação econômica tende a elevar custos para a economia mundial e apresenta obstáculos consideráveis para economias emergentes e em desenvolvimento.

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The Challenge of Fostering Innovation and Accelerating Economic Growth in Brazil

This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980snotably the globalization of firms and industriescombined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupted the path of industrial and technological development that Brazil had pursued since the 1930s. In essence, growth strategies based on the scale of the domestic market ceased to be effective. The innovation and economic challenges the country now faces cannot be addressed without a clear understanding of these processes. The analysis carries important policy implications, centered on the need for less protectionism and greater internationalization of firms. Reversing the inward-looking orientation of the Brazilian industry is a key objective for any policy aiming to stimulate increased business R&D and innovation.

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The Middle-Income Trap and Resource-Based Growth: The Case of Brazil

This paper examines Brazil's economic growth patterns over the last three decades and identifies a missed opportunity for the country to attain high-income status by the mid-2010s. Instead, Brazil has suffered from low productivity growth, and has made little progress in transforming its production and export structures in favor of higher value-added activities. This premature de-industrialization makes it challenging for Brazil to transition from its long-standing upper-middle-income status. Brazil now has a limited, two-decade window to catch up with high-income nations before losing its demographic dividend, potentially leaving the country with an aging population without achieving high-income status. Therefore, it is crucial for Brazil to raise productivity growth through competition policies, and by embracing technological change. Achieving this goal requires comprehensive trade reforms to improve domestic competition, and to harness technology advancements effectively. This paper discusses key elements of such a policy framework within the broader context of a development strategy aimed at breaking free from the middle-income trap.

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Jumpstarting the Brazilian Economy

Everything about Brazil is oversized – the population (at 217 million, the largest in Latin America), the land mass (fifth largest on earth) and by almost everyone’s reckoning, the economic potential. But so, alas, are its chronic problems that range from a lack of economic mobility to social divisions that undermine its capacity to make collective sacrifices in the quest for prosperity. There are signs – there have long been signs – that Brazil could pull itself up by the bootstraps. Much of the world rides in passenger jets made in Brazil, works in office buildings erected with Brazilian steel, eats soy grown in Brazil and learns from Brazil’s expertise in extracting oil in ultra-deep waters. Three of the eight largest hydropower installations on earth are located in Brazil, and more than half of Brazil’s energy consumption is derived from renewable sources. But to turn promise into plenty, Brazil needs to make hard decisions that prioritize growth and poverty reduction over the care and feeding of entrenched interest groups. It won’t be easy – but the gains would be worth the pain.

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Read more about the article The Amazon Needs the Rule of Law, Not the Rule of Chainsaw
Floresta amazônica, meio ambiente, preservacão ambiental, madeira, desmatamento, em Manaus | Sérgio Lima/Poder360 01.nov.2021

The Amazon Needs the Rule of Law, Not the Rule of Chainsaw

At the origin of deforestation, there is a problem of what economists call ‘microeconomic incentives’, that is, the (risk-weighted) costs and benefits for the perpetrators. Avoiding forest damage means acting on this calculation. Having bills approved is not enough. For deforesters to take them into account in their calculations, enforcement must be effective. The risk-adjusted cost-benefit calculation favors compliance with the law only when, in case of disobedience, the probability of capture and significant punishment are sufficiently high.

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A ciência tem um papel fundamental no desenvolvimento brasileiro

Experiências aqui abordadas ilustram bem tanto a necessidade das chamadas "instituições que fazem a ponte entre ciência e inovação", quanto os ganhos decorrentes de esforços de pesquisa científica em universidades ou instituições de pesquisa. Esforços de contenção fiscal precisam incluir um reordenamento de gastos que preserve e amplie investimentos em ciência

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Emerging markets (video), Inflation in Latin America (podcast), Sustainability (videos), and Slowbalization (video)

1. Emerging Markets: Economic and Geopolitical Fragmentation 2. LatAm in Focus: How Latin America Is Fighting Inflation 3. Sustainability (Soaring Fertilizer Prices; Brazil's Commitment to Sustainability; UN sustainability goals and developing countries) 4. Slowbalization, Reshoring, Nearshoring, & Friendshoring

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Building an Inclusive Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean

The COVID-19 pandemic brought a halt to the expansion of Latin America’s middle class and pushed millions back into poverty. Reversing this pattern requires addressing the region’s vulnerability to economic shocks and strengthening countries’ resilience.

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How to heal the Brazilian economy

The Brazilian economy has been suffering from a double disease in the last few decades: a combination of anemia in productivity increases and an obesity of the public sector. On the one hand, the mediocre performance of productivity in Brazil in recent decades has limited its GDP growth potential. On the other, the expansion of public spending has become increasingly incompatible with such limits on the potential expansion of GDP, particularly since the growing public spending has not achieved commensurate socioeconomic results.

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Brazil and South Korea: Two Tales of a Middle-Income Trap

The middle-income trap may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America since the 1980s. Conversely, South Korea maintained its pace of evolution, reaching a high-income status. Such divergence of economic growth can be related to their distinctive performances of domestic accumulation of technological and organizational capabilities. Their different approaches to global value chains and trade globalization reinforced such discrepancy in domestic accumulation processes.

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What can Brazil expect from joining the OECD?

Brazil can expect significant benefits from joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The organization has shown to effectively promote better policies and institutions among its members countries, with significant positive effects. Considering the evidence that institutions are behind a large share of long-term increases in welfare standards, the benefits of membership go well beyond the modest costs involved in participating in the organization. Among the studied benefits are increases in trade – which are larger than those due to other international organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) –, increases in foreign direct investment, improvements in education, and better results in governance. Risks are small compared to potential benefits. We estimate the benefits by benchmarking against an estimate of the benefits of acceding to an institution with similar goals and policies – the European Union (EU) – and find them to be very large.

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Climbing a High Ladder – Development in the Global Economy

This book approaches the opportunities and challenges faced by developing countries to raise their per capita income levels during the recent phase of globalization. After dealing with the post-global financial crisis economic landscape in advanced economies, it deals with the windows of opportunity opened by trade and financial globalization for developing countries to climb the income ladder. Domestic preconditions for a developing country to benefit from those windows are then pointed out. China, Brazil, and Sub-Saharan Africa are presented as case studies. The book ends with an assessment of the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the global economy.

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Brazil at a Post-Pandemic Macroeconomic Crossroads

Moving forward—or not—with structural reforms aimed at enhancing fiscal adjustment and lifting private investment will define whether a sustainable—or unsustainable—growth-cum-debt trajectory will prevail in Brazil in the next decade. The extent to which its economy regains its attractiveness for foreign investors will play a key role.

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The two sides of capital flows to Brazil

There was a significant inflow of funds in Brazil's external financial account in October and November for investments in both stocks and fixed income instruments. The bulk of the recent inflow has come in a “passive” way, and it did not include considerable volume on the side of “active” investors. For the wave to unfold in the availability of external resources to finance investments in the country, progress and confidence in the domestic fiscal and regulatory agenda will be relevant.

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